Thursday, May 10, 2012

Gay Marriage Takes Center Stage After Historic Announcement

This week was a rather tumultuous one for supporters of gay rights, and more specifically over the issue of same-sex marriage. It started with some positive news, as a couple of administrationofficials voiced their support for the practice. Then the movement suffered a harsh blow when 61 percent of voters in North Carolina approved of a constitutional amendment that prescribes marriage between a man and a woman as the only legal union recognized by the state. Shortly after that, however, President Obama changed the narrative by announcing his support for same-sex couples who want to marry. The announcement is somewhat at odds with his previous views on the matter, a change that he chalked up to personal evolution over the last few years. The statement does not promise any concrete policy changes on the issue, as marriage laws are controlled by state governments, but it has drawn positive accolades for the President from homosexual-rights activists. While it's helped gain support from a portion of his base, the move is not without political risks which may harm him in this election season.

According to polls, just about fifty percent of Americans support gay marriage rights in some form, with forty-five percent opposing it. The trend has also been moving toward support over the last few years. That being said, those numbers don't really translate into actual results at the ballot box, with North Carolina's recent vote an obvious example. By coming out in favor of same-sex marriage rights, President Obama is going against the political grain and it may even have some effect within his base. White voters are evenly split on the issue, but most of those who oppose it are unlikely to vote for him anyway. The numbers are basically the same for non-white voters, but the President will need the strong support of that group in order to find his way to victory in the fall. This announcement may harm his chances slightly, but numbers show that support for the President among black voters has held steady throughout his term. This announcement is unlikely to change that drastically, and the fact that it's so far out from the election means any fervor over the matter will have died down by the time votes are cast.

Republicans have wasted little time in responding to the President's declaration. Just hours after the announcement, the House voted 245-171 on a measure designed to stop the Justice Department from opposing the Defense of Marriage Act. House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH, 8th) was asked about it in an interview and reaffirmed his belief in marriage being between a man and a woman, although he did suggest that the whole issue is a needless distraction from more pressing matters. While he may have a point, he could also be underestimating the effect this announcement may have on his own party's base. Religious conservative leaders predict that their membership will rally against the President's stance, resulting in strong turnout come November. Once again, however, it's probably too early to change things in the actual election, as six months is a long time to stay energized over an issue like this.

While the President's hand was apparently somewhat forced by the unpredictable mouth of Vice President Joe Biden, the timing is probably wholly positive. Now is the time for the two candidates to be rallying their bases, and this is a very large bone to throw to the gay community. While he ended the military's "don't-ask-don't-tell" policy last year, he's been criticized for taking the homosexual vote for granted. This announcement has been heralded as an historic breakthrough in homosexual rights, and it's unlikely that they will soon forget it. We'll have to wait and see what the consequences end up being, but right now it looks like a major win for President Obama and a boost to his campaign.

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Tuesday, May 08, 2012

Lugar’s Fate Could Boost Tea Party’s Senate Power

The bitter partisan atmosphere up on Capitol Hill combined with an election year environment means nothing much is likely to get done in Congress until November, and voters know it. As a result, we’ve already seen a number of representatives lose their primary races to challengers from their own candidates. It now looks like a senator may be facing the same fate soon. Today, voters in Indiana hit the polls to determine the fate of Senator Dick Lugar (R-IN) who is in very real danger of losing to state Treasurer Richard Mourdock. Mourdock’s running off support from conservative elements, and he isn’t the only senate candidate who’s doing so. With a handful of other GOP candidates riding support from the far right, Tea Party types are heralding it as a sea change in the GOP itself. While this is likely overstating it, it could affect the way Senate Republicans operate in the coming years.

For Dick Lugar, who’s been in the Senate since 1976, a primary challenge is unfamiliar territory: he hasn’t faced one since the year he first won his seat. One of the longest-serving senators currently in office, his longevity may actually be one of the biggest factors working against him, as voters rally against the folks behind the current state of Congress. Few imagined that Lugar would have trouble securing his seventh term until recently, when the 80-year-old senator found himself trailing Mourdock in the polls. The most recent numbers show Lugar a full ten points behind the state treasurer: a full 17 point shift in just about a month. The slide may be partly explained by Republican voters feeling that he isn’t conservative enough. At least, that’s what folks in the Club for Growth and Freedomworks seem to think, as they’ve been pouring money into the fight to get him ousted. Seeing as how the right wing of his party has turned against him, Lugar’s looking to Democrats and independents for help in the party’s open primary. His rhetoric remains positive, but the numbers don’t look good. There’s a very real chance that he will become just the seventh sitting senator to lose his party’s primary in the last three decades.

All politics is local, so it’s easy to read too much into a single octogenarian incumbent candidate losing a primary race, but Lugar’s (potential) fate could be a sign that Republican voters are continuing their rightward shift. A handful of other conservative candidates are expected to perform well in Republican Senate primaries this year. Rep. Jeff Flake (R-AZ, 6th) appears to be cruising to a victory in Arizona, state Treasurer Josh Mandel has already been picked to take on Sherrod Brown (D-OH) in Ohio, and former state Solicitor General Ted Cruz may force Lt. Gov. Dave Dewhurst into a run-off in the May 29^th primary in Texas. All three have the support of the national Tea Party as well as the highly influential Senator Jim Demint (R-SC), who’s proven himself adept at playing kingmaker. DeMint, along with his fellow founding members of the Senate Tea Party Caucus—Rand Paul (R-KY) and Mike Lee (R-UT)—are looking to change the agenda within the Senate Republican caucus. If the three conservative candidates manage to win their seats, it will go a long way toward boosting their power within the party.

Senate Democrats, meanwhile, have been privately rooting for these far-right candidates in their primary contests. While they may be popular among the Republican base, Democrats believe that they have a much stronger chance against the conservatives in the fall. They certainly relish their Indiana candidate, Rep. Joe Donnelly’s (D-IN, 2nd) chances against Mourdock as opposed to Lugar. We’ll have to wait for tonight’s results to see if they get their wish. Then comes the long march to November, where we’ll find out what American voters actually want from their candidates.

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Friday, April 27, 2012

Courting Youth Vote, Candidates Set Sights on Student Loans

With Newt Gingrich's impending departure from the race and Ron Paul still posing no real threat, the Republican primary is effectively over. So begins the general election campaign, with President Obama kicking it off earlier this week with a tri-state visit to three state colleges in order to drum up support among the all-important youth vote. The President and his advisors are aware that it was young people and their enthusiasm that played a major role in boosting him to such a strong victory in 2008, and they're also probably aware that that same crowd is largely apathetic this time around. That's why he's chosen to focus on an issue that's near and dear to the hearts of millions of folks under 30: student loans. With the total volume of student loans held by Americans reaching $1 trillion this year and the average graduate leaving college with over $25,000 in debt, some are calling it an impending crisis that may very well be the next bubble to burst.

College has long been billed as the gateway into the middle class. Get a bachelor's degree in something, and in no time you'll be living a comfortable life working in a professional setting. Recently, it's become increasingly important to distinguish oneself from other graduates by earning a post-graduate degree. This phenomenon was exacerbated by the economic crisis, with some recent graduates choosing to wait out the dismal employment atmosphere in grad school, making themselves more attractive candidates when the jobs started coming back. As a result, these students borrowed heavily from both private and government sources, taking on tens of thousands of dollars in debt on the hopes of lucrative post-graduate positions. Upon graduation, they've discovered that not only are the jobs not as plentiful (or profitable) as they expected, but the loans that they're burdened with are exempt from bankruptcy. With a generation of young Americans saddled by this much debt, many are putting off major life decisions, such as getting married, having children, and purchasing homes.

That's why some people are looking to the federal government, which provides the majority of education loans, for a solution before things get even more out of hand. President Obama has taken up the issue, urging Congress to pass legislation before July, when the interest rates on certain federal student loans will double, from 3.4% to 6.8%. Mitt Romney has also chimed in, also supporting efforts to keep the loan rates as they are. With such bipartisan support, it's little wonder that both the House and Senate are working on bills to accomplish just this, but partisan politics is still rearing its ugly head. In the House, Republicans have proposed to offset the cost of the move with money from a preventative health care fund as established in the Affordable Care Act. Democrats in the Senate have chosen to pay for it by increasing taxes on the wealthy - specifically, by preventing professionals in small firms from hiding income as shared profits rather than salary. Neither side approves of the others' proposed methods.

This kind of political posturing is par for the course in an election year. Even when both sides agree on the ends, they'll fight tooth and nail over the means so that the other party doesn't get a perceived leg up. Right now, both President Obama and Romney are making their case for the youth vote, but if Congress drops the ball, it could ruin things for either candidate. The one surefire way to make generally apathetic voters care even less is to bring up a pet issue and then let it go unaddressed. There's also the little matter of a potential crisis in the near future, which should be incentive enough to get something done. They still have a couple of months to work out a deal, but right now it's looking like typical Congressional dysfunction, with young, potentially unemployed college grads looking on.

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Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Parties Gear Up for Contentious House Races

It’s Tuesday, April 24^th, which means, were it not for Rick Santorum’s departure from the presidential primary race, we would be treated to five more contests today. While most eyes are turned toward the general election between President Obama and Mitt Romney, there’s still a little bit of action going on today, thanks to recent redistricting in Pennsylvania. Three sitting Democratic representatives will be facing tough primaries, including two pitted against each other. Jason Altmire (D-PA, 4^th) and Mark Critz (D-PA, 12^th) will clash in a fight over a newly-drawn district whose lines were shaped by Republicans. The race is being billed as a test of what remains of union might, as Altmire drew the ire of organized labor when he voted against the Affordable Health Care Act. Critz is at a disadvantage numerically, but he’s counting on the power of unions and his status as a former aide to John Murtha to boost him to victory. Meanwhile, centrist Rep. Tim Holden (D-PA, 17^th) is facing a challenge from the left in the form of upstart self-funding candidate Matt Cartwright. An attorney, Cartwright is also critical of Holden’s vote against the health insurance reform law as well as his support for some of George W. Bush’s policies. The primary should be close, but if Cartwright wins, he may find it difficult to do so in November in a Republican-leaning district.

These primaries highlight a growing concern for both parties as November approaches: who will be left standing with the majority in the House come January. Right now, the Republicans have a significant lead, holding 242 seats to the Democrats’ 190, but that isn’t to say the lead is safe just because it’s big. House majorities can swing back and forth like a pendulum, and the edge that the Republicans gained in 2010 could be wiped out in one day. Even House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH, 8^th) admits that there’s a one in three chance that the Democrats could wrest control from his party. Folks were quick to jump on Boehner’s frank words, taking them as a sign of weakness or simply an effort to drum up more donations. Regardless, they came in stark contrast to House Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s (R-VA, 7th) prediction that the GOP will pick up more seats in the fall. At this point, predictions are worth little, as in some cases the parties don’t even know which candidates will be running, but that isn’t stopping them from focusing on the races in a major way.

Just this week, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced fourteen more races as part of their “Red to Blue” program, which focuses on contests where Democrats have a strong chance at defeating incumbent Republicans. They’re shooting for 25, in order to overcome the GOP’s current lead, and they will be distributing money and resources as they see fit. They have reported positive fund-raising numbers for most of the 35 they currently have on that list.

On the other side of the coin, Republicans are aware that some members are vulnerable, adding five members to their “Patriot Program,” which is devoted to shoring up candidates who may have their work cut out for themselves in November. While this may look like admitting weakness, it’s actually just dealing with reality, as the historic 63 seat gain the GOP enjoyed last time around means they have more to protect, and many of them aren’t firmly in their camp.

While most eyes will be turned to the presidential election, the House contests could prove to be just as crucial. If President Obama wins in November but the Democrats are unable to take back the House, he may find that his agenda will be just as thwarted for his second term as for his first. Likewise, a Romney victory with the Democrats in charge of the House would likely mean continuing deadlock and obstructionism.

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Wednesday, April 18, 2012

With Congress Back, Taxes Top the Agenda

After a two-week break, Congress is back in town, and they have no shortage of issues to tackle. Whether they'll actually want to do that in an election year, where each vote comes with as many calculations as it took to get Apollo 11 to the moon, is debatable. Still, they'll have to at least look busy if they want to keep their jobs, so some of the topics will have to be addressed. They've already started on one of the easiest to tackle, with multiple hearings being held on the GSA scandal involving lavish spending on hotels and travel, as well as an expensive conference in Vegas. Members have also been hearing from the chief of the Secret Service as details continue to emerge about the Colombian prostitute scandal. These salacious stories are sure to grab the headlines, but Congress has a number of more mundane matters that it needs to address. It's still uncertain whether any progress will be made.

Front and center this week is the thorny issue of tax policy. On Monday, Democrats in the Senate put forth a bill to enact a plan that would raise the minimum tax rate on individuals making over $1 million a year to 30%. The so-called “Buffett Rule,” named after the billionaire who believes the wealthy shouldn't pay lower tax rates than the middle class, is a cornerstone of the Obama tax policy. The measure didn't get enough support to pass, however, with only 51 senators voting in favor – nine shy of the number needed to overcome a Republican filibuster. The bill's failure didn't come as a huge surprise, and in many ways doesn't matter, because it would have been dead on arrival when it got to the House. In some ways it was a success, because the president can point to it as an example of the obstructionist policies used by the GOP when he's out on the campaign trail.

On Thursday, the House will vote on a tax plan put forth by the GOP which addresses taxes on small businesses. The proposal would grant a one-year, 20% deduction on the income of businesses with fewer than 500 employees. They argue that small business owners need relief the most, and would also be hurt directly by the Buffett Rule. Democrats counter that argument by saying that the people who will most benefit from the plan are wealthy lawyers and highly paid consultants. President Obama has already stated that he will veto such a plan if it gets passed, but there's little chance of that happening. Even if it passes in the House, the Democrats in the Senate are sure to shoot it down. Much like the Democrats' failed bill, this has all the markings of an election year statement.

This isn't the only tax plan the Republicans are expected to put forth this year. House GOP leaders are already making plans for the summer, when they're expected to bring up votes on a number of tax issues, ranging from the expiring Bush-era cuts to the rate on capital gains. The idea is to force Democrats to vote against tax cut proposals and in favor of increases, which they can then use against them during the election season. There's some division within the party on how much is enough, with some conservative members urging the leadership to propose a major rewrite of the tax code, which could end up backfiring on them if the plan is unpopular.

This week's actions on taxes are likely to set the tone for much of the year in Congress. Plans will be put forth by either party, and they may pass or fail in the first chamber. Regardless, they'll certainly fail in the second, which means little legislating will actually get done but political posturing will be at an all time high. There's the slimmest of chances for bipartisan consensus on some issues, but on the major ones that count, neither side will be willing to give any ground. Ultimately, the most likely consequence of this partisan brand of politics is that the American people will lose their patience and Congress's approval rating will continue to shrink, if it can even get any lower.

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Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Santorum Throws in the Towel

In a strangely fitting setting, just down the road from the site of the decisive battle of the Civil War, former senator Rick Santorum announced the suspension of his campaign yesterday afternoon, effectively ceding victory to Mitt Romney in the battle for the Republican presidential nomination. Starting the campaign as one of the true dark horses, he rode a wave of conservative and evangelical support past the likes of Texas Governor Rick Perry, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, and past pizza executive Herman Cain. Despite strong performances in the South and Midwest, he was unable to defeat Romney in the Northeast and out West, as well as in the key battleground states of Florida and Ohio. Santorum was able to stir up momentum throughout January and February, but began to falter in March and April, with his latest performance—a three-contest loss in Maryland, DC, and Wisconsin—apparently convincing him of his inability to overcome the front-runner. While Gingrich and professional curmudgeon Ron Paul remain in the race, the final outcome is all but certain, leaving Romney free to focus on President Obama and the general election.

Santorum declined to give a specific reason for his withdrawal, but it isn’t hard to guess why he would back out. The delegate math alone is convincing enough: Romney reportedly has 661 compared to Santorum’s 285, with 1,144 needed to secure the nomination. While that means Santorum would still have a fighting chance, one only has to look at the remaining states and see that Romney is favored in the biggest, like California and New York. A prolonged primary, followed by a heated convention, would likely have severely damaged the GOP's chances in the general election. By pulling out now, Santorum can say he has the party's best interests in mind while still walking away with an enormous boost in name recognition. He also made it clear that he's very popular with the conservative base, making him an invaluable asset in the coming election battles. It might turn out to be the best case scenario for Santorum, as he pulled off an improbable performance while avoiding what may have been a humiliating defeat in November.

With Romney free to turn his guns on the president, the question remains: what does the future hold for Rick Santorum? There has been talk about there being a spot for him in a Romney cabinet, and some have even considered him for the vice presidential spot, although his negative numbers probably make that unlikely. Santorum hasn't held elected office for six years, and if he wants to win a major position in Pennsylvania, he's going to have to wait. The current governor, Tom Corbett, is a Republican with two years left on his current term, and he'll probably run for another. Senator Bob Casey (D-PA) is up for re-election this year, but it's too late for Santorum to challenge him. He may have to pull a Palin and leave government in favor of the private sector, trying to stay in the limelight by commentating and opining. If he goes that route, though, he probably won't be able to turn to Fox News, as he burned some bridges on his way out and during his recent primary campaign. Considering his options, there's a good chance that a strong showing in a weak field of presidential candidates may be the apex of his career. He'll have to be creative in order to stay relevant and avoid becoming just another also-ran.

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Wednesday, April 04, 2012

Do Wisconsin Results Spell Santorum's End?

On Tuesday, Republican voters in Wisconsin and Maryland and the Republican voter in Washington, DC held the latest contests in this drawn-out primary season, and the results could hardly be better for the front-runner, Mitt Romney. As predicted by the polls, he won all three contests, although the Wisconsin race was a close one. His domination in the mid Atlantic was never really in question – especially since Rick Santorum wasn't even on the ballot in the District. His Tuesday winnings boost the former Massachusetts governor past the halfway point of delegates needed to secure the nomination, which casts serious doubt on his opponents' ability to catch up. Even with Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich holding almost two hundred delegates between them, Santorum's chances are longer with each contest, it seems. While he still has a chance, mathematically speaking, most analysts are counting Santorum out, but he's resolved to fight on, at least until April 24^th, when five states will hold their primaries, including his home state of Pennsylvania.

While the results out of Maryland and DC were essentially faits accompli, Santorum had a chance in Wisconsin that slipped through his fingers. He came within a few points of the upset win, and may have picked up a few delegates with his performance, but that's not going to be enough at this stage in the game. Part of the reason he failed in the Badger State is that he was once again outspent by Romney, this time 3.5 to 1. Romney also had a head start in setting up campaign infrastructure in the state. Santorum also had a disadvantage in Wisconsin, as it has fewer far-right conservatives and values voters, which make up the strongest portion of his base. Still, his performances in Ohio and Michigan showed that he can at least stay competitive in the midwest. Of course, he didn't win either of those states, and in Wisconsin he repeated the performance of falling just short of victory.

While losing Wisconsin is a disappointment, the question still remains whether he has a chance at stealing the nomination from Romney. With three weeks between yesterday and the next primary contests, Santorum won't have any opportunities to change the media narrative surrounding the campaigns. Instead, he'll have to endure almost a month of stories about his presumed irrelevance and Romney's renewed inevitability. He's hoping for a big win in his home state of Pennsylvania, and those 72 delegates will be a big prize, but the other four contests on April 24^th are in the northeast where Romney is perhaps at his strongest. Connecticut, Delaware, and Rhode Island aren't exactly crown jewels of the primary contest, but New York is, and seeing Romney win four states to Santorum's one will only serve to strengthen the current narrative.

Santorum won't be dropping out this month, and it's very possible that he will hang on until the last contest, despite poor performances for the rest of the season. While the money may start drying up as his supporters realize that his campaign is running out of momentum, he can still pull a Newt and hang around on the periphery. That won't really accomplish much, however, as he won't be able to purchase advertisements and the media will eventually stop giving him much attention. He'll also be overlooked by Romney, who has already turned his guns from his GOP opponents to the president, effectively beginning a general election campaign. In many ways, Santorum may turn into a Ron Paul type figure, who gets little coverage and is only noticed by his strongest supporters. The worst case scenario for Santorum is if he drags the race out beyond the logical conclusion and is seen as an obstructionist who is actively hurting his party's chances in November. He's still very young for a politician, and with the name recognition he's gathered in the last few months, he can jump start his stagnant career. That won't work if Republican party elites look on him with disfavor, so he may have to swallow his pride and put his principles aside in order to make sure he has a place in the GOP of the future.

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Tuesday, April 03, 2012

Let the Budget Battle Begin

Even in a normal year, the budgetary process is a tough one on Capitol Hill, with both sides jockeying for the upper hand and trying to score political points. Since this is an election year the budget fight is sure to be an even more vicious brouhaha which could stretch out for months and months. This is especially true because the country is still recovering from a severe recession, and average Americans aren't really feeling the positive effects, so the economy is going to be the central issue come November. If President Obama is going to win re-election, he'll have to win the image battle over the budget: since neither party is likely to agree to any concessions before the election results are in, he will have to frame the Republicans as obstructionist.

President Obama put forth his budget proposal in February, and it is aimed at trimming nearly $4 trillion in the next decade. It does so by letting the Bush-era tax cuts on individuals making over $250,000 a year expire as well as raising taxes on the wealthiest Americans, employing the so-called “Buffett Rule.” It also calls for higher spending on research and education, as well as investing increased investment in transportation and infrastructure. The White House has stated that its goal is to trim the deficit until it is beneath 3% of GDP. Earlier this month, the Congressional Budget Office scored the proposal, and determined that it would be successful in achieving that goal, but only temporarily. The deficit would reach as low as 2.5% of GDP in 2017, but would then begin climbing once again until it reached about 3% in 2022. Republicans jumped on these numbers, in addition to calling portions of the budget attempts at class warfare as well as a cheap ploy for political gain. The prospects of this budget making it past the Republican-controlled House are virtually non-existent: a budget alternative based on the president's proposal was put forth by a Republican representative, and went down 0-414.

Last week, the GOP fired back with a budget proposal of its own, put forth by Budget Committee Chair Paul Ryan (R-WI, 1) and passed by the House last week. The plan would squeeze savings out of Medicare and Medicaid, as well as cutting spending on transportation projects and financial aid for low income students in higher education. The plan, unsurprisingly, does not embrace the Buffett Rule, instead opting to reform the tax code, consolidating the six current rates into two, with the greater being just 25%. Revenue would be raised by closing tax loopholes and eliminating some deductions. The plan cuts spending and taxes more than the Obama budget, which leaves a considerable gap between the proposals, although not as big as the ideological gulf between the two sides. The Ryan budget, which has the backing of the GOP presidential hopefuls, has no chance of passing the Democrat-controlled Senate, so both sides are basically on equal footing.

While the budget issue would normally be central in any given political climate, neither side is likely to feel pressure to reach a deal any time soon. If a budget is agreed upon, one side will certainly try to use it as political leverage in the November elections, and it's often unpredictable which one will come out looking better to voters. That's why both parties will be content to put the crucial issue off until after the voters make their choices. Unfortunately, that's going to leave a busy couple of months for what is usually a lame duck time period. Congress will have to decide a number of crucial issues, including the fate of the Bush era tax cuts, whether to allow the automatic spending cuts triggered by the super committee failure, and the state of the debt limit, which will likely have to be raised once more around that time. Maybe the parties will be more likely to reach a compromise once it becomes clear who will be in charge come 2013, but nothing is certain. As it is, bipartisanship is far from most members' minds: a compromise budget was put forth that included tax increases and spending cuts, and only garnered the support of 38 representatives.

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Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Romney Wins Big in Illinois Primary

Another Tuesday, another GOP presidential primary, although based on the results from yesterday's Illinois contest, there may not be many more contested primaries left this season. Mitt Romney got the decisive victory he needed, taking in nearly 50% of the vote and defeating Rick Santorum by double digits. While he's still far away from the 1,144 delegates needed to clinch the nomination, the 54 Romney picked up in the Land of Lincoln helped increase his lead to 300. This latest development does little to change the overarching narrative of a Romney who wins when it comes to electability and experience but can't satisfy the hardline conservatives who doubt the strength of his character and his ideological purity. It's still too early to count Santorum out, as he's strongly favored in the next contest which takes place Saturday in Louisiana, but he'll need to perform better in the big potential swing states in order to convince party insiders that he's the best bet to beat President Obama.

A number of factors went into Romney's dominant performance in Illinois. For one thing, the former governor and his associated Super PACs spent $3.6 millon on television ads leading up to the contest, while Santorum's crowd put in a little over $500k. This underscores what is perhaps Romney's greatest strength in the campaign: much deeper pockets and better heeled allies that allow him to greatly outspend the competition. If money is speech, he's the loudest guy in the room by far, although the bad news for Romney is that that probably won't be true in the general election.

Another factor that helped boost Romney to victory is that Newt Gingrich was basically a non-issue, putting little money or effort into campaigning in Illinois, where he predicted his chances were poor to begin with. That doesn't mean Newt is throwing in the towel, but he's running on fumes, financially speaking, and Romney is therefore largely safe in ignoring him. Newt may remain in the race until the end, but he will probably have as much impact on it as Ron Paul. That isn't to say that their effects will be negligible, as the roughly 250 delegates between the two of them could very well prevent either Romney or Santorum from a decisive victory.

Regardless of those factors, Santorum had his work cut out for him in Illinois, where far fewer people identify as evangelical Christians than in the states where he's performed best. While he kept up his strong showing among voters who feel that “moral character” is an important trait for the nominee to have, it wasn't enough to overcome Romney's lead among the pragmatists who want someone who can defeat the President in November. If there's some silver lining for Santorum to take from the exit polls, it's that he has the slimmest of leads over Romney when it comes to enthusiasm among voters who supported him. The fact is, though, that all of the candidates did poorly in that regard, breaking roughly even between those who strongly favored the candidate they chose and those who still have reservations about who they voted for. While the beginning of the race was dominated with talk of Anybody But Romney, now that voters have had a chance to get to know Santorum, that sentiment isn't so black and white any more.

If the analysts see weaknesses in Romney's chances at winning the nomination, his campaign seems unperturbed, as last night his victory speech focused on attacking President Obama rather than the others remaining in the GOP field. Focusing on the general election is certainly premature, though, as Santorum pointed out in his concession speech. He reminded primary voters (and spectators) that the race has hit it's true midpoint, with roughly half of the delegates accounted for at this point, and no candidate holding more than 50% (although Romney is awful close). While Santorum's math is technically correct, he's going to need a sharp turnaround in order to keep eating into Romney's lead, and the next month of contests don't look too favorable. There are a number of primaries in the midwest and northeast, where Romney's performed his best. Santorum only needs to weather the April storm and make it to Pennsylvania, where he can set off a chain of victories that could carry into May, when the campaign returns to the south and plains states. He's going to need to start winning more states in order to eat into Romney's lead, but he doesn't need to overcome it. If he can stop Romney from winning outright and stay within the margin of error, he could be a handful oftarget="new" superdelegate votes away from taking the nomination. Of course, he'll have to convince those party insiders that he has what it takes to dethrone President Obama, and poor performances in the big states aren't helping his cause.

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Wednesday, March 14, 2012

The Race Must Go On

In the last week, four more states—not to mention the same number of territories—went to the polls to choose the 2012 Republican presidential candidate, and the results are bad news for anyone who wants a quick, clean resolution to this drawn-out battle. Rick Santorum won three of the four states, ensuring that the campaigns will continue on for at least another few weeks. Two of Santorum's victories came in the deep south, and another in Kansas, showing that the former senator from Pennsylvania has strong appeal in the areas where the GOP is strongest. Romney won Hawaii, and because the other states give out delegates proportionally, his opponents only gained a bit of ground on him. Santorum continues to hang onto his momentum, picking up enough states to continue to be a real threat to Romney. Meanwhile, Newt Gingrich performed strongly yesterday, taking about 30% in the two southern states, but he was expected to do well there and couldn't win either of them. It doesn't look like he'll be dropping out in the near future, but at best he can probably pick up a handful of delegates here or there and maybe set himself up to play spoiler. While Romney has a commanding lead, he lacks a majority of delegates, which is what he'll need at the end of the contest to ensure the nomination.

While Santorum continued his strong performance in the more conservative areas of the country, he didn't exactly dominate in the southern states of Alabama and Mississippi. Both contests came down to what was essentially a three way tie, with Santorum taking a enough of a plurality to be called the winner. These results, along with the fact that he only won about 20% of the vote in Kansas, show that Romney is still having trouble winning over his party's base. Whether it's his weather-vane centrism, his wooden, impersonal style, or his association with universal health care and other liberal economic policies, he seems unable to get conservatives excited about his candidacy. That isn't to say that Santorum is the far right's darling, as he has been unable to push Newt out of the race, and the two nearly evenly split the Anybody-But-Romney votes in the south. Part of that is Gingrich's relative popularity in the south, where he has had his best performances, but it may reflect the fact that Santorum's appeal isn't as strong as Romney's lack thereof.

Every day that Gingrich remains in the race hurts Santorum's chances of catching up in the delegate count, but realistically he doesn't need to hit the convention with a majority—he just needs to make sure that Romney doesn't either. If nobody ends up with the 1,144 delegates needed to secure the nomination outright, there will be some wheeling and dealing, and at that point it may just be up to Newt. That means every delegate that goes to Gingrich—or Ron Paul, who has quietly amassed about 50—is good for Santorum. That isn't to say that it's good for the GOP, because a heated battle on the convention floor would likely be disastrous for the party's chances in November. Right now, Romney has about 500 delegates, which is still more than the other three combined, but if he has too many days like yesterday, that won't be true for much longer.

Of course, the fact that Romney performs so poorly in the heart of GOP country may not be that bad of a sign. If he wins the nomination outright, and the people in the south who can't stomach him end up staying home, the GOP candidate is still virtually guaranteed to win those states. It's the purple states that are up for grabs which the eventual candidate will need in order to unseat President Obama. That's why Romney's strong performance in Florida may make it the most important primary so far. Of course, he did poorly in Minnesota and Colorado, and he barely squeaked by in Ohio and Michigan. It's also important to remember that the Virginia contest was ultimately insufficient when it comes to predictive value, since Romney and Ron Paul were the only ones on the ballot. Come November, Virginia may end up going blue due to Romney's lackluster appeal in the south and the strong Democratic presence in the DC area. Coming up next Tuesday is the Illinois primary, which is another one of those purple states. Romney's got a slight lead, but Santorum may have enough momentum to pull off the win and keep this race interesting for another couple of weeks.

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Friday, March 09, 2012

More Members of Congress Won't be Returning Next Year, Although Not by Choice

Super Tuesday has come and gone, and all of the four remaining candidates survived to fight another day. That can't be said for everyone, however, as the primary voting has claimed at least two House incumbents. Thanks to redistricting in Ohio, two members of Congress have lost the chance to run for re-election—at least under their party of choice. Former presidential candidate and darling of the far-left Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH, 10th) was defeated by Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH, 9th), the longest-serving woman in Congress; Kaptur will take on Samuel Wurzelbacher, or “Joe the Plumber” of McCain campaign fame, in the general election. Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-OH, 2nd) also lost her primary, falling to Iraqi war veteran Brad Wenstrup, who enjoyed the support of the Tea Party. These results, along with the considerable number of retiring representatives, show just how dangerous this campaign season is for incumbents. Between record-low approval ratings for Congress and redistricting thanks to the 2010 census, it looks like there may be quite the shakeup on Capitol Hill come November.

The Ohio lines were redrawn by a Republican-dominated state legislature, which carved out a new district along lake Erie, encompassing most of Toledo and parts of the current 9^th and 10^th. This forced Kucinich and Kaptur into an intra-party battle for the nomination which started out civil, but quickly took a nasty turn with the two trading heated accusations. Kaptur, with her 29 years of experience in the House and her senior position on the Appropriations Committee, edged out Kucinich by a margin of 56% to 40%. Over the 15 years he's spent in the House, the colorful Kucinich has made a name for himself as one of the most vocal liberals on the Hill. He attempted to have President George W. Bush impeached over the Iraq War and recently criticizing President Obama for his policy of indefinite detention and assassination of American citizens. Progressives who are bemoaning the loss of one of their favorite representatives may have some good news in the near future, though, as Kucinich is reportedly considering a run at another seat, perhaps in Washington, although the state Democratic Party there isn't exactly thrilled about the possibility. Considering the harsh words he had for Congress as a whole, a return to Capitol Hill may not be his highest priority.

Jean Schmidt's loss was just a good old-fashioned primary battle between a sitting representative and an outsider. Brad Wenstrup took advantage of Schmidt's rocky congressional career, which began with a special election victory followed promptly by her declaration on the House floor that “Cowards cut and run, Marines never do,” aimed at then-Rep. John Murtha, who is a Marine veteran. Her career was mostly unremarkable after that, although she did garner attention for giving the President a peck on the cheek at this year's State of the Union address, causing some to question her conservative credentials. Wenstrup won the race without running a single television ad, which, along with poor performances in 2006, highlights how unpopular Schmidt really was. While it's always a shock when an incumbent loses a race, it's important not to read too much into Schmidt's loss, as it likely reflects her personal appeal (or lack thereof) rather than the overall climate in Congress.

That being said, this Congress has seen more than its fair share of incumbents departing. There are 32 retirements (10 in the Senate, 22 in the House), six resignations, four people running for other, non-Congressional office, and two primary defeats. Part of that is undoubtedly due to unfavorable chances caused by redrawn districts. The nearly single-digit approval rating that Congress as a whole faces probably also affects some of these decisions. Some people believe that it's just not that much fun to be a DC legislator anymore. Whatever the reasons, next year's Congress will look measurably different than this one, including among the leadership, and according to most Americans, that's perfectly fine.

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Wednesday, March 07, 2012

Romney Wins Super Tuesday Battle but the War is Far From Over

After months of campaigning and seemingly dozens of debates, the GOP presidential primary season is roughly halfway over, with 23 states having held their contests. For those of us political junkies who can't get enough theater, it's been about as entertaining as one could expect, with four candidates still in the race—although after yesterday's results, it's uncertain how long that number will hold. There were few big surprises from the ten states that held primaries and caucuses yesterday: Mitt Romney won in his backyard, Santorum picked up the states he was expected to, Gingrich took his home state of Georgia, and Ron Paul didn't win anything. Of course, the big news is that Romney walked off with the prize of the night: Ohio. The contest was a real nail-biter, with the vote remaining too close to call up until about 99% was counted. The final tally shows Romney winning by one percentage point, which, as he put it after his Michigan victory, isn't a lot, but it's enough. Seven more states vote in March (as well as three territories) but there won't be another big day like yesterday until April 24^th, when five states hold their primaries. Considering yesterday's results, there's a good chance that the race will still be going on at that point. One thing's for certain: the race still looks as wide open today as it did yesterday morning.

It's hard to describe Romney's night as a resounding victory, despite taking six of the ten states up for grabs and a significant number of delegates. His only major accomplishment, however, was taking Ohio, where he won by the skin of his teeth. His strong showings in Vermont and Massachusetts don't mean much, since New England is essentially his back yard. The Virginia primary was largely meaningless, as only he and Ron Paul were on the ballot. Despite that advantage, Romney only took 60% of the vote, giving Paul his strongest performance of the season. Not to minimize things entirely, as he did win Alaska and Idaho, but those aren't really delegate-rich states. While he still holds a strong lead in delegates, yesterday gave Romney a chance to finally grasp the nomination and start the march to the general election. That didn't happen, which fuels the anti-Romney fire even further and calls into question whether the GOP will fall in line behind the candidate that most of them seemingly want nothing to do with.

While Santorum's Super Tuesday performance was impressive, it's becoming apparent that he needs a bit more momentum if he's going to overcome Romney's lead in delegates. While he managed to snag two delegate-rich states in Tennessee and Oklahoma, Romney's six victories increased his lead over the competition. Santorum is going to need a lot of money and energy to keep up over the next couple months, where the contests are few and far between. That means that he has to continue winning, or at least performing strongly, or else the perception will be that his momentum is flagging and potential voters will be less inclined to vote for him. If he can manage to keep going, placing second and picking up a state every other week, he may just be able to ride this all the way to the convention.

Despite finishing yesterday with a victory in his home state of Georgia, Newt Gingrich's campaign appears to be stalling. While he also performed well in some other southern states, he just hasn't shown any broad appeal. While before it looked like he was hanging on in order to increase name recognition and potentially boost future book sales or speaker's fees, it now looks like he may be in a powerful position with his 101 delegates. If the horse race continues, and Santorum narrows Romney's lead, Gingrich may hold enough cards to still be relevant in August.

Ron Paul has managed to stick with things so far, but finishing Super Tuesday without winning a single state is a huge blow to his campaign. In the past he's proven to be indomitable, and since he isn't running for reelection he has no real reason to drop out. Still, even his most loyal supporters have to read the writing on the wall. He hasn't come close to winning any states, and his numbers seem to hit a ceiling around 20%. It doesn't look like he's throwing in the towel, but even if he stays in, he probably won't get many votes or much attention for the rest of the season.

The way the contest is developing, people are starting to talk about the possibility of neither Romney nor Santorum finishing things with a simple majority. If that happens, there may be a brokered convention, with Gingrich holding enough delegates that he could play kingmaker. Romney's shrugged off talk of that, stating that he still expects to win outright, but it isn't hard to imagine it happening. Either way, the question still remains whether the candidate that comes out of this mess with the nomination will have enough strength left to take on President Obama in the general.

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Thursday, March 01, 2012

Congressional Retirements Leave Wide Open Races

As 2012 slowly marches on, the November election contests get closer and closer. That means that hundreds of people across the country are gearing up for some tough campaigning, whether to defend the seats they have or to challenge those currently holding them. But just like any election year, there are also a number of current members of Congress who are opting out of the legislation game and choosing to retire. As of now, 31 representatives and 10 senators have announced their decision to forgo reelection, and that includes some pretty big names, such as Reps. Barney Frank (D-MA, 4th) and Ron Paul (R-TX, 14th) and Senators Ben Nelson (D-NE) and Joe Lieberman (I-CT), to name just a few. This week, two more legislators announced that they also won't be returning to Washington next January: Senator Olympia Snowe (R-ME) and Rep. David Dreier (R-CA, 26th). Both retirements will have a big impact for the GOP in a year where it's fighting to protect the House lead and the majority in the Senate could be in play.

Snowe's announcement that she won't be seeking a fourth term came as a shock to the Washington media, as well as her fellow Senators. Snowe has been a reliably moderate voice in Congress for over three decades, crossing the aisle and standing with Democrats in order to achieve compromise on some major items of legislation. Apparently she tired of being one of the few such centrists in the Senate, as she cited the highly partisan nature of the upper chamber as the main reason for her retirement, bemoaning the fact that there are no signs of improvement in the near future. Some observers even suspect that the 65-year-old Snowe may be considering a third party presidential run in 2012, although there isn't much to base that on other than speculation.

Beyond losing a centrist voice in a time of partisan chaos, her departure will be a heavy blow to the Republican party, as her seat is far from secure. Analysts predict that it will be one of the easier seats to pick up for the Democrats in a year where they're largely playing defense. A lot depends on who makes their way onto the ballot, however, as candidates have just two weeks to gather 2,000 signatures to qualify—that is, if they're running with one of the major parties. Independent candidates need 4,000 signatures, but have til June to collect them. It's too big of an opportunity for any big name in Maine politics to pass up, so the field could get very crowded. So far, two U.S. Reps—Michael Michaud (D-ME, 2nd) and Chellie Pingree (D-ME, 1st)--have picked up the necessary forms. If they both run, then three of Maine's four House seats will be up for grabs. Two former governors are also expected to throw their hats in the ring: Democrat John Baldacci and Independent Angus King. Some Republicans are sure to get in on the action, and the suspects include State Senate President Kevin Raye and Secretary of State Charlie Summers. Whoever gets their party's nod will probably have to be somewhat moderate, as the voters in Maine seem to enjoy being represented by two non-partisan Senators. Only time will tell who rises to the top in this race, which will be hotly contested.

The announcement of Rep. Dreier came as less of a surprise. He has spent over thirty years in the House, and had initially intended to retire three years ago, but stayed on to help his party take over. It's also not a coincidence that he is the seventh representative to retire from California this year. That's mostly due to the fact that many district boundaries have been redrawn, thanks to the California Citizens Redistricting Commission. Dreier's district will be carved up into three new ones, and they're largely ethnically diverse, which poses a problem for Republican candidates. Fellow Republicans urged him to run in another district, but he opted to forgo what he envisioned as a “bruising battle.”

His departure will result in the loss of a veteran politician for the GOP, but it will also leave open a hole at the top of the House Rules Committee. While somewhat obscure outside of the Beltway, his chair is highly valued by Hill insiders, as it sets the rules for debate on bills and also decides which amendments get considered by the full body. Right now Rep. Pete Sessions (R-TX, 32nd) is next in line for the post, but there's some speculation that Republican leadership could go a different direction. Whoever gets it will be in a powerful position—that is, unless the Democrats somehow win back control of the House in the fall.

The rash of retirements in the Senate—the most in one year since 1996—has some people wondering how it will affect the chamber's environment. Ironically, Snowe's protest may ultimately make things worse. Considering that Ben Nelson and Olympia Snowe are among the most moderate of their respective parties, some believe that it will polarize things even further. It's hard to imagine such a thing happening, but if it does, gridlock will continue to be the name of the game for at least two more years, and probably for some time after that as well.

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Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Santorum Falls Short in Michigan as Romney Takes the Day

Yesterday, after nearly a month of buildup, the latest contests in the GOP presidential primary race took place, and for the more than half of Republicans who were hoping for someone other than Mitt Romney to win, it was a disappointing evening. Despite poll numbers showing a close contest in Michigan, Mitt held on to win his home state, defeating upstart Rick Santorum by about three points, 41%-38%. He also walked away with the delegates from Arizona, besting the second-place Santorum by over 20 points—but failing to garner more than half of the votes cast. Santorum's performance over the last month has been impressive, to say the least, but it appears that his momentum may be flagging. It's up to Romney to take full advantage of that next week, when ten states hold their primaries on Super Tuesday. His challengers are still alive and kicking, and it isn't outside the realm of possibility that Newt Gingrich could surprise some folks and make a big splash in the coming weeks.

Romney's victory in Michigan was crucial, as he had a number of factors going against him. Many analysts expected his 2008 op-ed piece pushing for officials to let the big Detroit automakers go bankrupt to hurt his chances, and that may have been true, but not enough to stop his victory. Santorum seemed to be riding a wave of poll numbers and positive news to a surprise victory, but he ultimately came up short. The former senator even had the help of some unlikely allies: Democrats, who made up nearly 10% of the voters in the open primary. Over half of those that voted turned to Santorum, thanks to robocalls run by his campaign urging Dems to vote for him in order to ensure that Romney was embarrassed in his own backyard.

Ultimately, none of those advantages proved to be enough to push Santorum over the edge, but it's possible that his actions in the week leading up to the primaries gave some Republican voters pause. In the last few days, Santorum has made a number of somewhat extreme statements, from calling President Obama a snob for wanting all children to attend college, to accusing the president of believing in a “phony theology,” to claiming John F. Kennedy's speech on the separation of church and state almost made him throw up. The comments drew a great deal of controversy, to the point where he backed off at least one of them. This kind of culture-war rhetoric probably plays well among Santorum's base of social conservatives and christian fundamentalists, and he performed well with those groups yesterday. It's not that popular with the moderates, however, and Republicans hoping to defeat Obama in November may have shied away from Santorum because of the remarks. His campaign likely realized that, as his speeches from the last couple days focused mostly on economic issues, which are sure to play a central role in the general election.

All hope is not lost for Santorum—or anyone on the Republican side who is hoping for anyone but Romney. On Super Tuesday, over 400 delegates are up for grabs, which is more than all the contests up to this point. Santorum has a healthy lead in Ohio, which has 66 delegates, but he's trailing Gingrich in the Georgia. While Romney has the lead in delegates right now, it may not be enough when it's all tallied up at the convention. Next week is make-or-break for Newt, who's only won one contest so far, but if things go his way, he could still end up being the new front-runner. One thing's certain about yesterday's results: they weren't enough to tie a bow on this thing, and the race for the Republican nomination is as close as ever.

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Thursday, February 23, 2012

GOP Candidates Clash in What May be Last Primary Debate

After a brief lull in the action, the GOP presidential primary season is gearing up again, with the next contests just around the corner. Next Tuesday, the voters of Michigan and Arizona will head to the polls to choose their favorite of the four remaining Republican candidates. While Mitt Romney should have a home field advantage in Michigan, that hasn't proven true in the polls: he trailed for much of February, but has managed to tie things up in the last few days, so it's likely to be a close race in the Great Lakes State. The numbers out of Arizona have been less conclusive, with polls showing Romney leading by margins as small as three and as large as 16. Even if you take the news in the light most favorable to Romney, it's not good for the former Massachusetts governor, who by most accounts should have beeen the hands-down favorite. With over 40 contests left, and Super Tuesday just a couple weeks out, there doesn't seem to be an end in sight, as no candidate has established themselves as the true leader--although Rick Santorum's meteoric rise has pushed him ahead of the pack in the national polls. The question remains whether he can hold onto his front-runner status as the race marches on toward the convention and the other candidates turn their guns on him.

If there were any doubts that Santorum is the current front-runner, last night's debate put most of them to rest. Much of the debate consisted of battles between the former governor and the former senator over a variety of issues. The repeated clashes between the two usually started with Romney lashing out, putting Santorum on the defensive for much of the evening. Romney had a bit of help from Ron Paul who also took his chance to get some licks in against the upstart Santorum, doubling down on his accusation that the former senator is a fake conservative. Santorum was repeatedly called out by the other candidates, whether it was over his change in position on No Child Left Behind or his views on earmarks and government bailouts. While defensive in his answers, he also managed to get his licks in, going toe-to-toe with Romney over many of the issues that were brought up. For his part, Newt Gingrich remained somewhat above the fray, coming off as more of a referee than a participant. He made almost as many conciliatory remarks as he did attacks. Whether that will help him rebound from his poor performances in the last few contests is uncertain, and it's possible that he will be the next one to bow out unless something drastically changes.

The debate centered largely around social issues, with some of the topics obviously tailored to the two upcoming contests. Immigration was a hot topic, as befits a debate in Phoenix, Arizona, and the domestic auto industry bailouts were addressed in anticipation of Michigan's contest. The candidates also discussed abortion and contraception, with that issue leading into a discussion of freedom of religion. That isn't to say that economic issues weren't addressed, as earmarks and deficit reduction were a major focus, but the candidates found a way to turn the focus onto values. For example, when discussing the auto industry bailouts, the candidates all used the opportunity to blast unions, blaming the problems in Detroit on the United Auto Workers. Part of this could be caused by the ascent of Santorum, which may have shifted the dialogue to social issues. He came off as his most sincere when discussing the number of American children being born out of wedlock and the need for stronger family values. It could also be an implicit acknowledgment that Americans are feeling more optimistic about the economy under President Obama, making it less of a sure thing to bash him on the subject. That isn't to say the candidates didn't take advantage of opportunities to slam the President, but they largely centered on social issues while doing so.

As the attention returns to the primary race, there is less and less certainty over which candidate will eventually win. A month ago, Romney seemed to have it in the bag, but then Santorum jumped to the forefront after winning three states. While it's tempting to count Gingrich out, he may have another surge left in him. We've probably seen Ron Paul's ceiling, but in this race it'd be premature to count anyone out entirely. Lucky for us folks who love political drama, there appears to be plenty of primary action left. The odds of a brokered convention are long, but considering how wacky it's been so far, nothing is impossible.

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Thursday, February 16, 2012

Is There Anything Congress Can Do to Clean Up It's Ethics Image?

There are a number of reasons for Congress's current record-low approval ratings. Some blame the partisan atmosphere that's enveloped Capitol Hill for the last decade, resulting in brinksmanship and gridlock at the expense of progress and principled policy-making. Others point to the electoral system that results in year-round campaigning and pandering. Still others focus on the campaign finance system which allows monied interests to dominate the political discourse, shutting out average citizens with real needs and desires. Toward the bottom of this list of grievances is the fact that members of Congress are rarely upstanding members of society, and regularly come under scrutiny for ethical violations. The current Congress is a prime example, with dozens of members being investigated by the House Ethics Committee and its chair, Darrell Issa (R-CA, 49^th)--not to mention several high-profile resignations in the last year. All this begs the question: is this Congress the most unethical ever?

The answer is: probably not, but it's still really bad. As mentioned above, dozens of members have been investigated by various offices and organizations. And it isn't just low-profile representatives who are being investigated. Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA, 35^th)--who has 20 years experience in the House and is the Dems' Chief Deputy Whip—has been a subject of scrutiny since 2010 over allegations that during the 2008 financial crisis she intervened on behalf of a minority bank into which her husband had invested $350,000. The panel originally voted to charge her with three violations, but that was stymied by partisan wrangling at the end of 2010. Last July, the Ethics Committee retained outside counsel to handle the investigation, and they recently opted to extend his tenure until next July. The most recent and highest-profile example is Rep. Spencer Bachus (R- AL, 6^th), who also has nearly two decades in Congress under his belt and is chair of the House Financial Services Committee. He's being investigated by the Office of Congressional Ethics (OCE), which is an independent agency, over possible violations of insider trading laws. The OCE is looking into a number of suspicious trades in Bachus's financial disclosure forms which seem to hint at the fact that he profited off of stock options he purchased based on knowledge he received from his position of considerable power. This type of investigation is a first for a member of Congress, and it calls into question how far elected officials can go in using their privileged information for profit.

Part of the reason the ethical situation on the Hill seems so egregious is the volume of investigations. There are a number of potential reasons for this: members are committing more ethical violations than they used to; they're committing the same number of violations but aren't as good at getting away with it; Rep. Issa made “draining the swamp” of corruption a high priority. Whatever the reasons for it, it has all the appearance of rampant corruption, further eroding the shreds of confidence Americans have in their elected officials. Ever sensitive to popular sentiments, members of Congress have taken steps to (partially) address the issue. Earlier this month, the Senate passed the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge (STOCK) Act, which prevents members and employees of Congress from using non-public information for their own personal benefit. The House followed suit shortly thereafter, although that version lacked some of the tougher provisions of the Senate version addressing the sale of “political intelligence” to folks on Wall Street. Democrats have vowed to fight for that measure during conference committee. Both bills passed with immense, bipartisan support, while similar bills have failed to make the cut. This year, however, Congress is less popular than ever, and incumbents wishing to retain their positions are undoubtedly worried about losing them. Whether the bill will be effective at it's stated purposes is yet to be determined, but even more important is whether voters believe this latest effort. It's just as likely that they'll see through this blatant attempt at pandering and their low opinions of Congress will remain unchanged.

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Tuesday, February 14, 2012

With Deadline Approaching, Congress Works Toward Payroll Tax Compromise

With two weeks between now and the next contest, the Republican presidential primary season has hit a brief lull. Fortunately for the Beltway media, Congress is there to fill the news gap. Between numerous ethics investigations and high-profile campaigns beginning to gear up, there's plenty of news to go around. The biggest item on the Hill, however, is the impending end of the two-month compromise on the payroll tax, unemployment benefits, and Medicare “doc fix.” The deal, hammered out at the last minute in the end of December, punted the issue until the end of February, which is now nearly upon us. Now, a conference committee made up of twenty senators and representatives from both sides of the aisle is working toward hashing out a deal that both parties can stomach. With the elections coming up in November, both parties are maneuvering, trying to get a leg up as voters' attention turns toward the economy and the size of their paychecks. A lack of a compromise would further erode the nation's trust in Congress, with approval ratings already nearing single digits. Both sides have an interest in coming up with a deal, but finding one that they can agree to is still a difficult task.

President Obama did his best to turn up the heat over the issue this week, urging voters to pressure their members of Congress to come to an agreement. The payroll tax cut is central to the President's recovery plan, and he's framed it as a necessity for the middle class and working Americans everywhere. To help bring the issue home to the average American, he's rebooted the “40 dollars” twitter and facebook campaign from December, where he asked normal people what they would do with an extra $40 per paycheck, which is the average savings the tax cut brings. The campaign helped contribute to the Democrats' success in December, resulting in the two-month compromise. Because it worked in December, the Democrats have slightly more leverage in the current negotiations.

Perhaps reading the writing on the wall, Republican leaders have offered a compromise on the issue. They have agreed to extend the payroll tax cut while decoupling it from the unemployment benefits and Medicare “doc fix,” and would be willing to pass that extension without demanding budget cuts to help pay for it. The plan has the backing of House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH, 8^th), Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA, 7^th), and Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-CA, 22^nd). This display of party unity is important, as it shows a measure of control of the GOP caucus which Boehner didn't have in December, resulting in the eleventh-hour agreement which made House Republicans ultimately look weak and disorganized. They emphasize that this plan is only a backup in case the conference committee can't reach an agreement, which is looking increasingly likely. The compromise is a wise one for the Republicans, who can't risk the tax cuts expiring, as that would likely result in their taking the lion's share of the blame. To do this in an election year where the economy is going to be the Issue, they'd be shooting themselves in the foot. Now they get to take some of the credit for an eventual compromise, allowing them to argue that protecting the middle class has always been their top priority.

The compromise has an added benefit for Republicans as well. By taking the payroll tax extension off the table, they remove some the Democrats' leverage over the unemployment benefits and Medicare “doc fix.” It puts pressure on the Democrats because if they demand that the payroll tax be tied to the other two issues, they risk the whole thing going up in flames, leaving them holding the bag. In the meantime, it provides incentive for the Democrats to come to an agreement on all three issues that is more favorable to the Republicans, who are less concerned about being the party that allows those other benefits to expire. Ultimately, the GOP has to walk a fine line between complying with the Democrats and boosting the economy, which would make the President look strong, and sticking to their fiscally conservative guns, which may result in their taking a share of the blame for the bad economy. The average American is almost certain to see their taxes remain at the lower level, which means it's a win-win for them. Whether that boosts their confidence in the Congress is another story entirely.

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Wednesday, February 08, 2012

Santorum's Big Night Calls Romney's Inevitability Into Question

After a solid victory in Florida, followed up by a resounding win in Nevada, it looked like Mitt Romney had finally clinched the GOP presidential nomination, allowing him to put his three remaining opponents firmly in the rear view and focus his attention on President Obama. Yesterday, however, three states—Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri—held their primary contests, and the results have stunned analysts and called the seemingly inevitable Romney nomination into question. Rick Santorum walked away with all three states, and grabbed roughly 50% of the votes in all of them, bringing his total to four first-place finishes out of eight, besting Romney by one. Mitt can take solace in the fact that the three contests are non-binding: Colorado and Minnesota held caucuses and Missouri a primary, but the actual delegate selection will take place at a later date. Romney has used this to downplay his poor performance, but it's hard to write off the fact that a majority of voters in all three states chose someone other than him. The candidates have a three-week lull before the next contest on February 28^th, which gives Santorum a chance to try to build off his renewed momentum while also providing Romney plenty of time to throw some money around in the remaining states.

When the primary season began, the inevitability of Romney's selection was hard to question. He had plenty of national name recognition from his 2008 run and the rest of the field was somewhat lacking. Even now, the remaining candidates include a former two-term senator with no executive experience and polarizing positions, a disgraced former Speaker of the House and known philanderer, and a 76 year old representative whose policy views fall well outside the mainstream. Despite Mitt's advantages, though, there's been a nearly-palpable anti-Mitt sentiment throughout the months of campaigning, as Republicans looked for somebody—anybody--who isn't Mitt Romney but still has a realistic chance of defeating Barack Obama in November. After his convincing victory in the all-important Florida primary, it appeared that he had finally won over his party and could turn his attention to the general, but yesterday's results have at least drawn this contest out for another month. Each state is disappointing for Romney but for different reasons.

Colorado was the race with the closest results, with Santorum taking 40% to Romney's 35%. That's cold comfort for Romney, as he poured a not-insignificant amount of resources into the state. He spent money there, developed a ground game, and personally campaigned there before the caucus: things he didn't do in Missouri or Minnesota. He had the support of some of the state's big GOP names, and had robocalls with their endorsements going out across the state. He also performed well there in 2008, taking 60% of the vote and more than tripling John McCain's total. All this preparation is reflected in the fact that it was his best performance of the day, but as a presumptive nominee one expects better. It's especially bad news because a sizable portion of Colorado's Republicans are very conservative, with the headquarters of Focus on the Family in the state. His loss there will at least fan the flames of his supposed inability to woo the far right. Even more importantly, Colorado is neither firmly red nor solidly blue, so if it's up for grabs in the general, Romney's performance doesn't bode well in the event that he's the nominee.

Minnesota's results are perhaps more troubling for Romney, especially in the big picture. He only managed to bring in about 17%, losing to Santorum and Ron Paul. While he didn't put much effort into the state—he spent a bit on advertising, had some organizational support, and passed through there on the way to Colorado—his performance is still embarrassing. He didn't win a single county, even with the backing of former governor and brief presidential candidate, Tim Pawlenty. While the caucus results are non-binding, Romney's performance is another bad sign for the general. Minnesota is likely to go for President Obama, as it did in 2008, but the Republicans may have a chance at poaching its 10 electoral votes from the Democrats.

The Missouri loss is disappointing for Romney, as any loss would be, but it's not as disastrous as the other two. The Republican base there is strongly conservative, which helps explain Romney's poor performance, but it also means that they're unlikely to vote Democrat in the general. Even if the far right turns their back on Romney and refuses to come out in support, he's still almost guaranteed a victory. It's just another example of how the conservative base is less-than enthused over Romney, but that might not be such a bad thing.

While Santorum's victories are major news, they might not have a huge effect on the eventual outcome of the race. Romney still has the edge in funds raised and organizational acumen, and his victory in Florida shows he can win in the important states. The party base is making itself clear that it doesn't love Romney, but that's different than saying they like President Obama more. While some may stay home, the prospect of another four years of socialistic, secret-Muslim policies are probably enough to get the far right out to the polls. All that, of course, depends on Romney ultimately securing the nomination, and with only three states under his belt—including a non-binding caucus victory in Iowa—that's still far from certain.

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Wednesday, February 01, 2012

Florida Republicans Flock to Romney, But the Race is Still On

Despite the Democrats' best hopes and dreams, Newt Gingrich wasn't able to win yesterday's Florida primary and throw the Republican race for the presidential nomination into further disarray. In fact, he wasn't even able to keep it all that close. He pulled in a respectable 32% of the vote, which was easily eclipsed by Mitt Romney's 46%. The remaining candidates, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul, took away 13% and 7%, respectively, although neither has shown any indication toward dropping out. The size and population of Florida gave Romney an inherent advantage. His stronger organization and deeper pockets allowed him to blanket the airwaves with ads blasting his rivals, especially the second-place Newt. While Gingrich came out of South Carolina with a good deal of momentum, it's apparently flagged since. While Romney's victory is a big step toward securing the nomination, the contest is far from over, with 46 more states left to cast their votes.

Romney's double-digit victory in Florida is impressive, not just because of the raw numbers, but the fact that he beat his rivals in virtually every category of voter. He took home at least a plurality of every race, gender, age, and class division. He even took home more votes from self-described conservatives, showing that his appeal has broadened to groups of voters where he was previously considered weak. The only areas where Mitt didn't do so well were amongst evangelical Christians as well as those who consider themselves “very conservative.” Those voters turned to Newt, showing that the Republican base isn't quite ready to accept Romney as their man. Still, the Florida results are very positive for Mitt for a number of reasons. It's the first closed contest of the season, so we finally get to see what Republicans actually want, unadulterated by independent voices or strategic Democratic votes. It's also a large and diverse state, with over 1.5 million votes cast, which makes demographic breakdowns a bit more accurate and significant. Mitt also displayed what's probably his biggest strength: campaign organization and a strong fund-raising advantage. He outspent his opponents 5-1, and no matter who the candidates are, numbers like that are virtually impossible to overcome. His ads were also largely negative attacks, which are often decried, but are repeatedly vindicated by their effectiveness.

Of course, not all of those strengths will translate over to a general election. He was able to win self-described moderates, but only those who register as Republicans. True independents may not flock to Mitt's standard come November. His other demographic victories, such as amongst women and Hispanic voters, are unlikely to be replicated in a race against President Obama. His advantage in campaign organization and fund-raising will also probably vanish in a general election. Say what you will about President Obama's skill as an executive, he's a great campaigner and his campaign has already raised nearly $100 million. If Romney turns the general campaign negative, he may not come out of it on top.

Some of Mitt's negatives in Florida may actually turn into positives, however. His lack of conservative bona fides hurts him in the GOP primary, but Mitt is undeniably to the right of President Obama, so he probably doesn't have to worry about the ultra-conservative crowd voting against him in the general if he secures the nomination. In fact, his lack of support amongst the far right might actually make him a more attractive candidate for moderates and centrists who shy away from the fringe.

All of this presupposes that Florida was the kill shot, and Mitt's already secured the nomination. While it's a harsh blow to his opponents, they're still alive and kicking. Newt's still on top of national polls, so despite Florida's size, it wasn't quite the accurate reflection of wider sentiment that people make it out to be. There also won't be another big state until Super Tuesday, so the candidates with smaller war chests may perform better. The next few weeks will also see a number of caucuses, where issues and policy are more important, which could give the other three candidates the chance to make up lost ground. While Romney's victory in Florida is certainly resounding, it's a long campaign season, and it's unlikely to end any time soon.

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Thursday, January 26, 2012

Newt's Victory in SC Tightens Up GOP Race

Last week at this time, it looked like Mitt Romney was going to run away with the Republican nomination. He's been the front-runner and presumptive nominee for most of the race and he was two for two in primary contests, including a decisive victory in New Hampshire. His good fortune didn't last long, however, as the certification of votes in Iowa turned his slim victory into a second-place finish and his poor showing in South Carolina allowed Newt Gingrich to gain ground. These blows are hardly fatal, and he's still going strong, but it's changed the dynamic of the contest. People in the Anybody-but-Mitt camp now have a realistic (if not ideal) alternative in Newt. The next primary is on Tuesday in Florida, and it's going to be a huge one, and it won't be nearly as predictable as the last three. Romney had a convincing lead in the polls for a bit, but Gingrich jumped to the front in the last week after his victory in Old Dixie, and now it's just about a dead heat.

Florida's contest is going to be an interesting one. They decided to jump ahead of Nevada, which historically comes in fourth, and they're losing half of their delegates as punishment. At the moment it seems like a small price to pay, as they have spent the last week showered with attention and the results will likely have more weight than if they were back in the middle of the pack. The media is also probably ecstatic with the change, as a Florida race draws much more interest and allows for more speculation and analysis than a smaller state with a known bias. South Carolina and New Hampshire are much more predictable because they're known to be more socially conservative or independent-minded, respectively. Florida, however, has a diverse population, much more in line with that of the nation as a whole, so the results should be more indicative of the final outcome.

One main factor in the Florida primary is that all the wings of the party are well represented, including wealthy fiscal conservatives, socially conservative “values voters,” middle class moderates, and Tea Party-type libertarians. Unsurprisingly, Romney does well with the well-off while Gingrich is pulling in support from the middle class voters and the NASCAR crowd. Newt is well aware of this divide, and is doing his best to exploit it. He's harped on Romney's past association with Bain Capital and has tried to paint him as out of touch with regular Americans. This tactic concedes the wealthy elites to Romney while hoping to be carried to victory by the multitudes of non-rich voters. The risk in that strategy is that Santorum will take a large share of the social and religious conservatives while Ron Paul will walk away with the lion's share of the libertarian crowd, leaving Newt with the middle class moderates. While that is the majority of the GOP base, he'll likely still be splitting it with Romney, which means he has to do well enough in that group to overcome Romney's lead amongst the well-heeled.

The good news for Newt is if his strategy is successful, he probably won't have trouble winning over the rich folks when it comes to the general election, as they're unlikely to defect to the Democrats. If Romney is chosen, he may be so damaged in the eyes of the rest of the electorate that they might not rally around the multi-millionaire Wall Street insider. While they probably won't vote for President Obama, they could end up preferring a third candidate, like Ron Paul. He may not run as a third party candidate, but his followers are so devoted that he may receive a lot of write-in votes which could make a difference in what looks to be a close contest. Because of all this, the importance of the Florida results will go beyond just who wins first place. If Paul and Santorum continue their respectable performances, it could determine how much longer they stay in the race. If they do well, it probably means that their respective bases are unhappy with either Mitt or Newt, which would mean big trouble for the GOP in the general. If they do poorly, it probably means their supporters jumped ship for Newt, and he'll likely end up defeating Romney. This would be a godsend for the Democrats, who think Newt's numerous negatives make him a weaker candidate against Obama. This belief is supported by poll numbers, and conservatives also lend credence to it, as they're turning their guns on him in a major way out of fear that he might actually win the race.

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