Thursday, November 19, 2009

The Road to Congress: 2010 (Part 2)

As promised, here’s a look at a few more 2010 Senate primaries that are sure to be of interest.

In Connecticut, the Republicans smell blood in the water, and they’re lining up for the chance to take on the embattled Senate veteran Chris Dodd (D), who has borne the brunt of the popular anti-Wall Street sentiment that has cropped up over the last year. There’s a large field preparing for the primary, but the candidates with the strongest chance at victory are former WWE CEO Linda McMahon and former Rep. Rob Simmons. Right now, McMahon is using her considerable wealth to finance her campaign, giving her a big monetary edge over her opponents. This also allows her to take time she would spend raising funds and use it to get her name out – not that she’s suffering from a lack of popularity. Despite her financial advantage, McMahon still trails in the polls, lagging behind first-place Republican candidate Rob Simmons. As you’d expect, there’s still a big portion of the electorate that’s undecided, so there’s plenty of time for the numbers to change. The best news for the GOP is that both of the candidates are polling ahead of the beleaguered Dodd, although Simmons puts up better numbers than McMahon. Also, don’t overlook Peter Schiff, a stock broker and economist whose claim to fame is that he predicted the current economic collapse and recession. While a dark horse candidate, his libertarian ideals have been shown to resonate with a vocal minority in the Republican Party. He’s currently polling at the rear of the pack, but the same polls show that even he would give Dodd a run for his money. What it all boils down to is that, no matter who wins the Republican primary, Dodd will have to completely revamp his image in the next year or the long-serving Senator may find himself out of government for the first time in nearly three decades.

Over in the Bluegrass State, both sides are gearing up for what look to be contentious primaries. With Republican Senator Jim Bunning declining to run for re-election, the Republican side has produced two strong candidates: Secretary of State Trey Grayson and ophthalmologist Rand Paul, son of 2008 Presidential candidate Ron Paul. Rand is off to a strong start, gaining grassroots momentum and internet fund-raising much like his father did in last year’s Republican primaries. He hopes to rely on the support of the Tea Party crowd as well as young energetic college-aged conservatives, and his message of small-government libertarianism seems to have struck a chord with a sizable piece of the Kentucky electorate. Conversely, Grayson has the support of the party establishment, with fellow Kentuckian and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell throwing his weight behind him. That might not be enough to push him past Paul, who currently enjoys a slight lead in the polls. More significant than the current lead, though, is the trend, which shows him gaining support with Grayson’s numbers shrinking. While Rand’s father, Ron, wasn’t able to win any primaries in his Presidential bid, he managed to raise a good amount of money and was competitive in a number of races. While he was largely ignored by the party establishment at the time, his son’s success may make the leadership take pause and realize that the Pauls’ ideals are popular with a portion of their base, and must be addressed somehow.

The Democratic side of the Kentucky race is also a close one, with Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo enjoying a double-digit lead over his opponent, state Attorney General Jack Conway. Similar to the GOP race, Conway has the backing of the party establishment but is trailing his opponent. This could be explained by Mongiardo’s lead in name recognition, which would follow from his holding a higher-profile position. With six months left before the votes are cast, Conway can go a long way toward getting his name out there to the sizable minority of the Democratic electorate that remains undecided. Whichever candidate comes out on top will have his work cut out for him, as the general election promises to be a close one – not surprising, as it will be one of the eight open races taking place across the country.

Finally, out in Colorado, Senator Michael Bennet (D) is hoping to earn the post that governor Bill Ritter (D) appointed him to, although he’ll have to get past his primary opponent – state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff – first. Bennet is one of a handful of appointed Senators who are saddled with the difficult task of convincing the electorate to validate what the governors did earlier this year and send them to Washington for a full six-year term. He is holding onto an early fund-raising lead, although much of his money is coming from out of state, which is usually a troubling sign. While Romanoff got off to a slower start than he was expecting since joining the race in September, his electoral experience should be a plus as he takes on Bennet in the appointee’s first campaign. Whoever wins this contest will have to face the winner of the Republican contest. There are four candidates in that race: former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton, businessman Cleve Tidwell, Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck and former state Senator Tom Wiens. The race is too close to call, with all four candidates sounding similar on most of the issues. Wiens may be able to use his personal wealth to separate him from the pack – an important factor, since the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee has opted out of spending money on the Colorado race. Both primaries should be reasonably close and the general election as well. As a western state, Colorado defies most “red” or “blue” labels, so it’s hard to say which party has that advantage, but if the economy continues in its slump, the party in power will likely get the blame.

Keep in mind that these races are still months from now, and a lot can change in that time in the world of politics. The biggest factor is likely to be the economy, and if jobs start returning, the Democrats could hold onto their seats. If things remain largely the same, or if the economy improves without the generation of new jobs, the Republicans will likely make big gains in both houses of Congress. Democrats are unlikely to lose their majorities, but if they have trouble getting legislation through with sizable majorities now, they could be totally neutered if their advantages are whittled down further.

Top

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

The Road to Congress: 2010

It’s late November, which means that in a little under a year there will be another Election Day. While that may seem far off to those of us not in the running, the candidates are in full campaign mode already. That’s also largely due to the fact that party primaries will be taking place relatively soon, and there are a number of hotly-contested races that will be coming up in the next six months or so – not to mention a special election that will determine the final makeup of the Senate until next November. Here’s a run-down of some of these key races.

Right now, the race to see who will officially replace Ted Kennedy up in Massachusetts is being largely ignored by the national media. That’s mostly because the primary isn’t taking place until December 8, and the actual election won’t be held until well into January. The race is also confined to one small, overwhelmingly blue state, meaning the odds of the seat changing party are very slim. It’s also partly because the race has been a quiet one, without much movement in the polls since the election dates were announced. State Attorney General Martha Coakley still leads the Democratic pack, with a comfortable margin between herself and the second-place candidate, businessman Steve Pagliuca. Right behind him is U.S. Rep. Michael Capuano (D-MA, 8th), who also recently earned the endorsement of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA, 8th). The wording of the endorsement made it appear to be more about support for his vote on the health care bill than the race itself. While its nice to have the House leadership behind you, it probably won’t be enough to get him out in front, so look for Coakley to be the newest member of the gang of 100, come January.

The next race to watch will be the first Senate primary of 2010, taking place on February 2nd in Illinois, where Alexi Giannoulias leads the Democratic field, although he doesn’t have quite the advantage over his opponents that Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL, 10th) enjoys over his GOP competition. Giannoulias may be the front-runner, but the Democratic race could tighten up before the initial votes are cast. Former Chicago Urban League head Cheryle Jackson is still in the running, as is former Inspector General of Chicago, David Hoffman. While both are long shots, they’ve managed to eke out support in key areas and could give Giannoulias a run for his money. The Hoffman camp is already trying to tie him to developer Tony Rezko: a tactic sure to be emulated, if Giannoulias wins, by the eventual Republican candidate. That’s very likely to be Mark Kirk, who polls comparably with Giannoulias in head-to-head matchups. That’s not to say Kirk has it wrapped up, though, as his main competition – real estate developer Patrick Hughes – is trying to gain support from conservatives, to see if he can pull off an upset similar to Doug Hoffman’s over Dede Scozzafava in New York’s 23rd District. While the primaries should be interesting, the general election is almost certainly going to be a close one. The major difference between this and most of the rest of next year’s races is that the prize being pursued is President Obama’s old Senate seat; if the President is going to have a positive effect for his party in any of the mid-term elections next year, it will certainly be this one. It will spell big trouble for the Democrats if they can’t hold onto it.

There are also a number of head-to-head primary contests that will be politically intriguing as well as have wide-ranging consequences. There’s the showdown in Florida, between Governor Charlie Crist (R) and former state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R). This race has taken over where NY 23 left off, bringing the clash within the Republican Party to the forefront, with the popular moderate governor playing defense against the conservative, Club For Growth-backed Rubio. The Tea Party crowd will definitely be all over this one, hoping to accomplish what they came close to doing in upstate New York; getting a truly conservative candidate elected over a center-right Republican. Despite it being one of the last primaries, taking place in late August, it will gain national attention throughout the next year because of the major implications. Expect Rubio’s camp to try and tie Crist to the Obama Administration, especially over the acceptance of stimulus money from earlier this year. What will be most interesting to see is whether either candidate can survive the onslaught that they’ll both be facing in the primary and finish the last month strong enough to defeat the Democratic choice.

Let’s not forget the case of Arlen Specter (D-PA), who will be facing a challenge from Joe Sestak (D-PA, 7th) on May 18. There’s a lot of bad news for Specter, with his approval rating hovering around 25%. His lead is also shrinking with each poll, although he does still have a double-digit advantage. How long that holds up is still uncertain as his opponent gains name-recognition across the state. The bad news for both Democrats is that neither fares all that well against the likely Republican candidate, Pat Toomey. Sestak still has six months to improve his image and boost his numbers, but it’s not likely that Specter goes down without a fight. As an experienced campaigner, he’s going to have a lot of advantages and he’ll probably pull off the victory, but it’s likely to end up being too close for comfort.

Check back tomorrow, as I examine a few more Senate primary races that promise to be close.

Top

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

What to Take from the 2009 Elections

A week has passed since last Tuesday’s off-year elections, and the results gave both parties plenty to ruminate over. While the Democrats managed to pull off a win in New York’s 23^rd House District, the biggest news was the GOP victories in the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey. While the Democrats had recently made headway in Virginia, and have long had an advantage in the Garden State, voters in those states rejected their candidates and embraced the Republicans’. The GOP was quick to grab onto these as examples of a sea-change in the American electorate, with the rout of 2008 behind them and major momentum carrying them forward to the 2010 Congressional midterms. I made the argument last week that the gubernatorial races were more about weak candidates on the Democrats’ side: Corzine was incredibly unpopular and Deeds never really resonated with his electoral base. It’s foolish to downplay these victories for the Republicans, though, as they are important for practical reasons as well as predictive. However, the most important lesson to take away from the elections may have come from New York.

The presence of Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman in the race should have been considered a black eye for the Republicans. While the party chiefs chose Dede Scozzafava as the candidate they believed had the best chance at victory, Hoffman, the Club for Growth and a number of prominent conservatives had other plans. As Newt Gingrich pointed out, his refusal to back Hoffman wasn’t so much ideological as it was practical: if a third-party candidate decides to ignore the will of the party, he should not be rewarded, as it undermines the authority of the party leaders on the local level. While the local party leaders may have been woefully wrong in thinking that Scozzafava was the best choice for victory, it was still their decision to make. It’s especially ironic coming from the Republican Party, which rejects this very kind of top-down, national-level control as a matter of principle. On an even more pragmatic level, what if a fringe, hard-right candidate were to lose a primary in one of the upcoming Senate races, but then decide to pursue the spot regardless, splitting the Republican base and allowing a Democrat to walk away with the race – basically what happened in New York’s 23^rd, where a Democrat won a seat previously held by a Republican. Now this race wasn’t so pivotal, because the Democrats already have a healthy majority in the House, but next year the balance could be much different and the consequences more dire for the GOP.

While Hoffman’s loss is bad enough on its own level, it also hints at a possible problem for the GOP in 2010. Many in the party (including some prominent figures as far as 2012 is concerned) are currently arguing for a hard-right turn, rejecting centrist principles and trying to appeal directly to their conservative base. A number of high-profile Senate contests have seen candidates step forward to challenge more moderate Republicans, including some incumbents. Marco Rubio is a perfect example of this: he’s challenging the popular governor Charlie Crist in the race for Florida Senate next year. His poll numbers have been steadily increasing, and he was recently endorsed by the above-mentioned Club for Growth. It’s looking like he may have a legitimate chance at winning the primary, but who’s to say how he will fare against a Democratic candidate in a general election? While the Club for Growth crowd, along with the newly-relevant Tea Party crew, are very vocal and have a lot of money to toss around, the one general election that they really threw themselves behind turned out to be a flop. Right now, independents are showing a bit of buyers’ remorse when it comes to the Democrats they sent to Washington. The Republicans have a good shot at taking back a lot of seats, but it’s unlikely that they’ll be able to appeal to moderate independents with hard-right candidates.

The Chair of the GOP, Michael Steele, recently had some harsh words for those Republicans in Congress that might cross the aisle on important issues, such as health care. Rep. Joseph Cao of Louisiana did just that over the weekend, and his words echo the lesson of the above paragraph: Michael Steele purports to know how to get elected in Cao’s district better than someone who actually lives there. Cao knows that he’s going to have a hard time being elected in a relatively liberal district if he toes the party line. The Democrats are aware of this dynamic and benefited greatly in 2006 and 2008 by running center-left and even center-right candidates in more conservative districts. The Republicans could certainly make back a lot of ground in 2010, and eat away at the majorities that the Democrats currently enjoy by quite a bit, but it’s unlikely to happen if they continue shrinking their tent. We’re still a ways off from the spring’s primaries, but the way the winds are blowing now, it looks like the Marco Rubios and Doug Hoffmans of the party may decide the future of the GOP.

Top

Wednesday, November 04, 2009

And the Winners Are...

The results from yesterday’s contests are in, and there are few surprises amongst them. The Republicans made big gains by taking the Virginia governorship, with their candidate Bob McDonnell smashing his Democratic challenger, Creigh Deeds, in a race that finished a bit wider than even the polls suggested. The GOP also emerged victorious in the race for New Jersey’s chief executive spot, with Chris Christie earning just shy of 50% of the vote, and incumbent Jon Corzine barely gaining 44%. The remainder went to independent candidate Chris Daggett, whose influence may have been enough to tip the race in Christie’s favor. The Democrats can take solace in the two House Special Elections held yesterday, however, as they re-claimed California’s 10^th District seat, with Lt. Gov. John Garamendi winning handily. They also pulled off a close one in New York’s 23^rd, where support from prominent national politicians wasn’t enough to push Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman past Democrat Bill Owens.

Top

Tuesday, November 03, 2009

Election Day 2009: What Do Today’s Gubernatorial Races Say About President Obama?

Today is Election Day, and while that doesn’t mean much for most of the country in this off-year, two states (well, a state and a commonwealth) are currently voting on their chief executives. The much-anticipated contests in New Jersey and Virginia are upon us, and, as we’re likely to discover in the next few days, will have wide-ranging consequences in the political world. While the official results won’t be in for hours, it’s looking like there will only be one close race, with the polls in Virginia showing a widening gap between the two candidates. Still, anything can happen, so don’t count anyone out until the votes are actually tallied. It could come down to the wire in both contests.

While once polling quite close, the difference in the Virginia governor’s race has been increasing over the past couple weeks, with Republican Bob McDonnell establishing and building on a significant lead over his Democratic opponent, Creigh Deeds. Depending on the poll you look at, McDonnell entered the day with a lead of anywhere from 12 to 18 points, which makes a Deeds victory incredibly unlikely. That’s a big blow to state Democrats, as they’ve enjoyed eight years at the helm of Old Dominion, as well as the election of two U.S. Senators in that time. Naturally, folks are trying to figure out what went wrong in the race, and some in the party are probably ruing the day that Terry McAuliffe (D) lost the primary. Some will choose to blame the candidate, criticizing Deeds for a poorly-run race. The White House began this a couple of weeks ago, claiming that he ignored good advice proffered from the Oval Office early on, which resulted in the current state of his campaign. Considering the fact that the President is still pretty popular in Virginia (he enjoys a 57% approval rating), Deeds may have been well served to take that advice. Of course, it could also be an example of the Administration distancing itself from a doomed candidate, in order to make it more difficult for the national media to paint the inevitable loss as a referendum on Obama – not that that will actually stop them. Still, considering the fact that Deeds is looking to come up short in many of the demographic groups that helped President Obama take the Southern state last year, it does seem apparent that the main thing missing from this Democratic campaign is the enthusiasm and energy that was so vital to last year’s victories. Look for McDonnell to win it in a cake-walk, and for the Republicans to sweep the down-ballot elections, too.

The other gubernatorial election taking place today is decidedly closer, with Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine and his Republican challenger Chris Christie at a virtual tie in the polls. This is thanks in large part to the relatively strong showing by independent candidate Chris Daggett. In true New Jersey spirit, the race has been a nasty one, with both major-party candidates resorting to negative advertisements early on, as well as trading personal insults. It’s a bit surprising, however, that Corzine has managed to stay in it, as he has a number of factors going against him: general dissatisfaction with the state tax situation, connections with the much-maligned Goldman Sachs and overall poor approval ratings. He’s also likely to face the same problem as Deeds in Virginia, as the party base is unlikely to come out in the same numbers as last year. The closeness of the race alone is a bad sign for the Democrats, as New Jersey should be reliably blue. Of course, the economic conditions make it hard for any incumbents to win right now, so the fact that Corzine is still in it is a big boost for them. In the end, the biggest factor is likely going to be where the independents go, and it’s looking like many of them will go with Daggett; something that Democrats are counting on and Republicans fear. Unfortunately for Daggett, he had little in the way of funds, and third-party candidates don’t have the same get-out-the-vote infrastructure as the two main parties. He’s entering the day polling just under 10%, and he probably won’t be able to scratch that in the final results. What that does mean is that whoever pulls off the victory will do so with less-than 50% of the vote. We probably won’t know the official results until some time after the polls close, but look for Corzine to pull off a squeaker.

Over the next few days, there will be countless analyses of these races, with experts extrapolating the final numbers to represent the national electorate. Folks will try and point to the results (likely to include a number of Republican victories) as a sign of dissatisfaction with the current Administration. As noted above, however, the President’s approval rating in these states doesn’t exactly match up with the performance of the Democratic candidates. In the end, the results of the races will depend mostly on the quality of the candidates running in them. Deeds’ predecessors, Tim Kaine and Mark Warner, struck a chord with their state’s electorate, which is something Creigh just wasn’t able to replicate. With the approval ratings Corzine is saddled with, it’s a wonder he’s been competitive at all. Combine these factors with the current economic situation (always one of the biggest elements in an election), and the President’s popularity hardly seems like the major component in these races.

Top

Monday, November 02, 2009

2009 Election Preview: Will Tomorrow’s House Races Be an Indicator of 2010?

It’s been nearly a full year since Election Day 2008, when the Democrats – led by a phenomenally popular Barack Obama – rode a wave of electoral support to big majorities in both chambers of Congress, as well as securing the Oval Office. Since then, we’ve had a number of special elections to replace both Reps and Senators, who moved on to positions in the Obama Administration. Tomorrow, we have two more such contests taking place, and while the race to replace Ellen Tauscher in California’s 10^th seems to be one-sided, the match up in New York’s 23^rd looks to be going down to the wire. While these two seats won’t significantly change the makeup of the House, they are (most likely) going to be the last such high-profile elections before next year’s midterms, so the pundit class will be dissecting them to see what – if anything – can be gleaned from them about the state of the national electorate.

The race in California won’t be discussed much by the national media this week, as it’s something of a “Dog Bites Man” story. The 10^th District, which is just east of the state’s Bay Area, is heavily Democratic, with Republicans making up less than 30% of the electorate. Add to that the fact that the Democratic candidate is Lt. Gov. John Garamendi, who happens to be one of the most popular political figures in the state, and it would appear that the GOP’s David Harmer stands little chance of pulling off the upset. Still, the state’s Republican Party leadership isn’t ready to throw in the towel: while an electoral victory is unlikely, if Harmer manages to finish close, and the numbers show higher-than-expected turnout amongst Republicans and Independents, they’re ready to claim it as a sign of dissatisfaction with the party in power in Congress. While most experts assert that off-year races, with their low turnouts and lack of voter enthusiasm, make bad measuring sticks, the Republicans will take any sign of momentum that they can get. Regardless, expect Garamendi to be able to add “U.S. Representative” to his already extensive resume come tomorrow evening.

The race that most eyes will be turned to tomorrow is taking place in upstate New York, where a number of national Republicans have inserted themselves into the picture, backing Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman over Republican Dede Scozzafava. It got so bad, in fact, that Scozzafava suspended her campaign over the weekend, effectively dropping out of the race just days before the voting was to take place. Despite leading in the polls early on, Scozzafava was unable to raise much money compared to her opponents, and her liberal stances on issues such as abortion and gay marriage hurt her within her own party. Add to that the fact that many prominent Republicans, including Sarah Palin and Tim Pawlenty, threw their support behind Hoffman as a way to prove their conservative bona fides on the national stage, and Scozzafava essentially became the GOP candidate in name only. Perhaps that’s why she chose to endorse her Democratic opponent, Bill Owens, over Hoffman shortly after dropping out of the race. The latest polls show a close race, with Hoffman having the edge over Owens. It’s looking more and more like Hoffman will walk away with this one, which should come as little surprise based on the conservative nature of the electorate. Still, it could be troubling news for those within the Republican Party who are worried about it leaning further and further to the right, and alienating the big swath of Independents in the center.

Folks in New York and California would like to paint their race as a referendum on the national political scene. Most of the Republicans hoping to make a Presidential run in 2012 spent the last month flocking to the district to get their two cents in, and the majority of them chose to back Hoffman. One of the biggest reasons for this is that the GOP county leaders chose a weak candidate in Scozzafava; while they may have been going for someone closer to the center, they ended up alienating a large portion of their base due to her liberal stance on some key policies. Much will be made of how Hoffman’s success points to the rising power of far-right conservatives in the Republican Party, but it’s important to remember that the two candidates on the forefront of the 2012 pack – Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee – chose to remain on the sidelines. Yes, there was some very vocal support from conservatives for the Conservative candidate, but many of them were folks simply scrambling to get their names out there in any way possible and drum up support within their base. In the end, it’s looking like there will be a rare third-party member of the House come Wednesday, and the New York Republican Party will have to rethink their strategy on choosing candidates for the next time around.

Top

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Battleground New York: Conservatives at Odds with GOP's Chosen Candidate

While conservative Republicans are hoping for a replay of the 1994 elections, they’re also spurning the man who helped bring it about. Appearing on the Sunday talk shows, Newt Gingrich coyly flirted with the idea of a 2012 presidential run, implying that he would enter the race if he felt none of the other candidates adequately represented Republican ideals. But reaction from the far-right of his party was less than positive, and much of the reason for that has to do with the lines being drawn in upstate New York, with Newt on the opposite side of many prominent conservatives.

While mid-term and special elections tend to be framed as a referendum on the sitting President, the race for New York’s 23^rd district is looking more like a battle for the heart of the Republican Party. With just a week to go, it’s a three-way race, with the GOP candidate, Dede Scozzafava, trailing Democrat Bill Owens and Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman. From the very start, conservatives expressed concern over the choice of Scozzafava, who was seen as too much of an insider politician, as well as out of step with the party on an ideological level. Since then, prominent conservative politicians, including Sarah Palin, Fred Thompson and Tim Pawlenty, have flocked to Hoffman’s banner, and the effect is showing in the polls; it has turned into a race between Hoffman and Owens, and with a week left, it’s unlikely that the Republican candidate will be able to regain lost ground – especially with much of her party’s national leadership against her.

While many of the endorsers have made it a point to emphasize that they made their choice for ideological reasons, Gingrich has made it clear that his choice was a practical one, framing it as a defense of local and state authorities’ control over their own political futures, as well as a need for party unity. While some in the party are calling for a hard veer to the right, purifying the organization on an ideological level, Newt is a leading advocate for broadening the party’s appeal to include as wide a base as possible. It’s a tough decision that opposition parties have to make, especially when they suffer a defeat as severe as 2008 was for the GOP. With only about 20% of the electorate actively identifying as Republican, they may have shrunk too far already. While Gingrich may have the right idea, the lack of solid leadership at the top could make it difficult to bring about the change he desires.

Considering the sticky situation, it’s a wonder that so many prominent Republicans waded into the race. While they’re obviously trying to increase their name recognition on a national level, there’s real potential for their choice to backfire. If Owens wins, they could be blamed for subverting their party’s chosen candidate and allowing the Democrats to take a seat in a historically Republican district. If Scozzafava wins, as unlikely as that may be, they will appear totally out of touch with their party, which will obviously be bad news for them in 2012. Even if Hoffman wins, they’ve proven that they’re willing to subvert the official choice of their own party. Perhaps that’s why former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee (R) chose to stay out of the imbroglio – and is performing better in the polls than his GOP counterparts.

In the end, the winner of the race will enter Congress a little under halfway through his or her term, and will do virtually nothing to change the makeup of the House. In other words, their effect in Congress will be negligible, but the real consequences of this race will be a good indicator of the outcome of next year’s elections, and what the future holds for the Republican Party.

Top

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

The Campaigner in Chief

While few can deny that President Obama is a capable campaigner, his last big effort – to bring the summer Olympics to Chicago in 2016 – ended in failure. He received a lot of flak for it at home, but in the end it probably didn’t do all that much damage on the domestic political front. This week he’s back at it, although the stakes are a bit higher now as he’s out in support of struggling Democratic candidates who will be facing elections in just a few weeks. While the balance of power in Congress is a high-profile number, state governorships are big prizes for either party as well, and a few of them appear to be hanging in the balance. Burdened by some middling approval ratings, the President is hitting the road over the next week to support his party’s candidates, and to try to keep some states’ executive offices within the fold.

On Wednesday, the President will be in New Jersey, once more trying to help Governor Jon Corzine (D) in his re-election bid. The race is currently dead even, with both major candidates pulling 39% of the vote, and Independent candidate Chris Daggett garnering almost 15%. While Daggett’s ascendancy has had a big effect on the race’s narrowing, Obama’s support may be partially responsible as well. Back in July, Corzine was lagging behind his Republican opponent, Chris Christie, by double digits. That was before the President appeared on behalf of the governor, and considering Corzine’s abysmal job approval rating which has remained relatively stable, it’s unlikely that the shift has anything to do with the voters’ views of the governor himself. While it’s still too close to call, Corzine’s chances look better now than they have all year. If he pulls of a squeaker of a victory, it will probably have a lot to do with the President’s help.

The other impending gubernatorial contest is in Virginia, where Creigh Deeds (D) is trailing his opponent Bob McDonnell (R) by about 8 points with just a couple weeks left to go. The President had originally stumped for Deeds back in early August, and the results were mixed at best: at the time, McDonnell enjoyed a lead of roughly 14 points, with the margin shrinking to almost zero during September. How much of that was caused by Obama’s support is up for debate; much of the poll movement came after McDonnell’s controversial thesis came to light, and Deeds’ momentum receded as that story fizzled. Regardless of the effect his previous appearances have had, Obama will be returning next week in order to throw some eleventh-hour support behind the Democrat. This could help the struggling candidate improve his bona fides with loyal Democrats, which is a group he’s been struggling with and one which was so instrumental in helping the President win the state last year. Deeds will also get the help of some other party stalwarts: former President Bill Clinton and primary challenger Terry McAuliffe will be campaigning in Northern Virginia as well. It looks like Deeds is a long shot for victory as the election rapidly approaches, but don’t count him out completely. While the country as a whole is showing itself to be dissatisfied with the party in charge, the opposition isn’t faring all that well either.

This afternoon, the President will be attending a fund-raiser in New York, being held to benefit Bill Owens (D) who is running for the vacant house spot in NY-23. The seat was last held by John McHugh, who was recently confirmed to be the Secretary of the Army. The remarkable thing about this event is that Owens is a conservative Democrat who is hardly ideologically aligned with the President; in fact, Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava holds more liberal beliefs on abortion and same-sex marriage. This could explain why Obama isn’t speaking at the event, despite initially having been slated to make a few remarks. Regardless of their differences over policy, the President knows that every Democrat within the Congressional coalition is a win, so he’s making his appearance, but because the district is relatively conservative itself, he’s not making a big push. While Owens would appear to be at a distinct disadvantage due to the district’s general Republican lean, the fact that Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman is undermining the Republican candidate could tip the race to his favor. It’s still a tight race, but there’s a good chance that Owens will pull off the victory – and a bit of extra money raised by the Chief Executive certainly can’t hurt.

Top

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Ten Months In, Members Still Leaving the 111th Congress

Considering the hard work and luck that it takes to get elected, it seems a bit surprising that so many folks in Congress have quit their seats so far this year. While many of them left to fill spots in the Obama Administration, a few have simply opted out for greener pastures in the private sector. The record-low approval ratings that Congress is facing could go a long way toward explaining this mini-exodus, but whatever the reason behind it, it’s apparently not over yet.

This week, House member Robert Wexler (D-FL, 19^th) announced that he will be leaving Congress in order to take a position as head of the Center for Middle East Peace and Economic Cooperation. The Congressman initially made a name for himself in 2000, when he was an outspoken representative of his party during the presidential election recount. He is a self-described “fire-breathing liberal” who argued against the impeachment of President Clinton, as well as for that of President Bush. Wexler was also one of the earliest and most vocal supporters of President Obama during the 2008 election, emphatically campaigning on his behalf and helping increase support for him amongst Jewish communities.His close association with the President leads some experts to believe that this move is about strengthening support for the President’s two-state initiative within those same Jewish communities.He’s expected to take his new position in January of 2010, meaning he won’t be serving out the end of his term, and a special election must be held in order to find his replacement.

Wexler’s district is heavily Democratic, representing portions of Broward and West Palm Beach counties, so his party is unlikely to lose his seat to a Republican. Still, the announcement came as something of a surprise, so potential successors will have little time to prepare and execute a campaign. Those scrambling to get their names in the hat include state Senators Jeremy Ring and Ted Deutch, West Palm Beach Mayor Lois Grankel, Broward County Mayor Stacy Ritter and former Broward County Commissioner Ben Graber. It’s still very early, and, due to the unexpected nature of the race, it’s anyone’s game. We’ll keep you updated with the special elections date, when it’s announced, and to let you know if any candidate jumps ahead of the pack.

Wexler isn’t the only member planning to prematurely vacate his spot in Congress; faithful readers will remember that, back in August, Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) announced that she would be stepping down from her Senate seat this fall in order to pursue her candidacy for governor of Texas. It looks like she may have had a change of heart, however, as she had originally planned to leave her post sometime in October, but yesterday, in a radio interview, she made it seem as if she could be staying longer. Citing the wishes of “some people”, as well as the need to fight against the President’s health care reform proposal, Hutchison refused to set a concrete date, and it appears she could remain in her post through the March primary. Her gubernatorial opponent, Governor Perry (R), has already jumped on her apparent indecisiveness, accusing her of the dreaded waffling. While the Senator was wise not to set an exact date for departure, one can only wonder why she brought it up at all. It was obvious back in July that health care would be a hot-button issue through the end of the year, so citing that as her reason rings a bit hollow. It is a minor issue, but it gives her opponents some ammunition, which could go far in what will likely be a very close primary.

Bonus health care coverage:

Yesterday, the Senate Finance Committee voted on whether to send the infamous Baucus bill to the Senate floor, and it passed with a tally of 14-9. As expected, the vote fell largely down party lines, with all Democrats voting for, and all but one Republican voting against it. The lone aisle-crosser was Senator Olympia Snowe (R-ME), who was seen as the last great hope for President Obama to achieve some kind of bipartisan support for his reform initiative. The White House was quick to praise the Senator, as well as the other members of the Committee. Snowe made it clear, however, that she was supporting the Finance Committee’s bill, and might not necessarily support one with any significant changes. Snowe’s fellow Senator, Susan Collins (R-ME), released a statement supporting her colleague, but expressing concerns over the contents of the bill. While this is comforting news to those hoping for a bipartisan bill, progressives hoping for the inclusion of a government-run public option see it as a potentially bad sign. While there are currently four other health care bills – three in the House, and one from the Senate HELP Committee – which all contain a public option, the Baucus bill is likely to be the basis for the final legislation that is sent to the President, due to the modicum of bipartisan support it has behind it.

Top

Thursday, October 08, 2009

CBO Gives Baucus Bill Positive Diagnosis; Public Option Still on Life Support

When it comes to the inner workings of Congress, it can often be difficult to tell when things are actually getting done. So much of what happens occurs in committee or behind closed doors, and it often takes so much time, that it gives the appearance of inaction. This week is a notable exception, though, as there’s been a lot of movement lately on the hottest issues on the Hill; especially health care reform.

The biggest news coming out this week is that the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has completed its preliminary analysis of the bill that Max Baucus (D-MT) and the Senate Finance Committee have hammered out, and the resulting report is positive news for the President and Senate Democrats. The projection shows that the bill will cost a total of $829 billion over the next ten years – well beneath the $900 billion mark that the President is shooting for. It’s also estimated that the bill will reduce the federal deficit by $81 billion in the same timeframe, which is a blow to anyone opposing reform attempts. Congressional Republicans were hardly fazed, however, as shortly after the report was published, House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA, 7^th) sought to undermine the CBO report on twitter, posting, “On government cost estimates. In 1967, official estimates said Medicare would cost $12b (in 1990 $) - it ended up costing $110 billion.” One might question the reasoning of having the CBO if one is simply going to brush off their findings, but such is often the way on Capitol Hill: the admission of defeat is simply out of the question.

Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) also attempted to dampen enthusiasm, saying “This partisanFinance Committee proposalwill never see the Senate floor, since the real bill will be written by Democrat leaders in a closed-to-the-public conference room somewhere in the Capitol.” This is technically true, as there is another incarnation of the health care bill from the Senate HELP committee, which will have to be merged with Baucus’ bill. This report is still an important and necessary step in getting to the point where a single bill can actually be presented to the floor. While the final legislation that eventually winds up on the President’s desk will not be this exact bill, because of the favorable marks from the CBO, it’s certainly going to have much in common with it. Of course, that’s a mixed blessing for progressives hoping for a public option, as Baucus’ bill doesn’t include one. It does establish a mandate for obtaining health insurance, as well as setting up insurance exchanges and expanding Medicaid eligibility. The Finance Committee expects to finish their markup and vote on the bill by next Tuesday. It remains uncertain whether they will be able to court any Republicans on the committee, with Olympia Snowe (R-ME) being the most likely to break ranks.

Once the bill arrives on the Senate floor, it will be debated and amended quite a bit, and a new potential compromise has been brought up by Sen. Tom Carper (D-DE) which could be included in the Senate’s final draft. His idea, which is backed by Hill heavyweight Chuck Schumer (D-NY), is to include a federal public option which would allow states to opt out of it if they so choose. This could go a long way toward assuaging the opposition of many of the conservative Democrats that threaten to scuttle the idea of a public option altogether. Granted, the CBO hasn’t examined a bill with this provision in it, and it will be difficult to add it in while keeping costs low. One plan to help pay for the bill that’s gained the opposition of many Democrats is to tax certain expensive health insurance plans, sometimes referred to as “Cadillac” plans. Another option that’s being considered is a windfall profits tax on health insurers, which is gaining a bit of ground, as the insurance companies have brought little to the table so far, as far as concessions go.

Of course, there’s still another chamber of Congress, and Democrats in the House have their own plans for health care reform. The House progressive caucus is still intent on having a public option in the finished legislation, and some members are adamant about it being included. While they expect that the final House bill will include one, as well as a controversial tax increase on wealthy Americans, progressives fear that these motions will not survive the conference committee, and will be left out of the final draft. The good news for them is that they appear to have the American people on their side; while support for the President’s health plan remains low, certain provisions get high marks in recent polls, including the public option. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA, 8^th) also announced that she will be sending three different drafts to the CBO for cost estimates, in order to begin to reconcile the bills residing in three separate committees. While it will still be some time before a final bill is sent to the White House, the action this week goes a long way toward helping assure that the President achieves his goal of passing comprehensive health care reform by year’s end.

Top

Tuesday, October 06, 2009

Republicans Looking for a Replay of Their Revolution

Because it’s so hard to predict the comings and goings of your average election, political analysts love to turn to historical trends in their efforts to guess at what the future may hold. Lately, a lot has been made of the similarities between the upcoming 2010 Congressional elections and those that took place in 1994, when the Republicans made sweeping gains and took over both houses of Congress. There are certainly a number of similarities: back then, the Democrats had just taken the White House the cycle before and held a majority in Congress. Health care was a major topic, with the Clintons’ efforts at reform being stymied, which some analysts point to as a major source of the Republican resurgence. While you can get arguments from either side on whether we’ll be having a repeat of that next year, one thing’s for certain: the GOP is doing everything in its power to bring one about. That includes recruiting strong candidates in states where Democrats are noticeably weak.

In Nevada, the GOP is going all-out in an attempt to oust Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), with a number of candidates vying for the spot. The field of Republican candidates includes state Senator Mark Amodei, Reno attorney Chuck Kozak, former UNLV basketball star Danny Tarkanian, former state Assemblywoman Sharron Angle and, most recently, former state GOP Chair, Sue Lowden. Early polls give the Republican candidates cause for optimism, as Lowden and Tarkanian are both currently ahead of the embattled Reid – not to mention the fact that his favorability rating is sub-par. The Democrats could be looking at a repeat of Tom Daschle’s loss in 2004 (which paved the way for Reid to take his current spot), although it’s not all doom and gloom for them quite yet. The Nevada GOP isn’t at its strongest, as current Governor Jim Gibbons (R) is having his share of troubles, as is Reid’s fellow Senator, John Ensign (R). Also, the candidate most courted by the national party, Rep. Dean Heller (R-NV, 2^nd), opted out of the race in favor of defending his current position. Still, Reid’s numbers are nothing to overlook, and it does appear that he’s getting the lion’s share of the blame that’s falling on all of Congress lately. While things look dire for Reid right now, it’s unlikely that he will actually lose next fall. As Heller noted, Reid is a tough campaigner, and anyone trying to upset him is in for an uphill battle. If the economy shows no signs of resurgence, though, it will be largely up in the air. It will be an interesting race to watch, though, no matter who emerges from the Republican primary with the victory.

For another good example, one can look to Delaware, where Beau Biden (D) has just returned from his tour of duty in Iraq to continue his job as state attorney general. The son of Vice President Joe Biden, many political analysts expect Beau to run for his father’s old seat, which is currently filled by Ted Kaufman (D), who was appointed to the spot when the Vice President was sworn into office. Kaufman is a long-time aide and advisor to Joe Biden, and has already announced that he will not be running in the 2010 election. Of course, it’s still uncertain whether Beau will run or not, as he has yet to announce his plans one way or the other. Regardless, the Republicans have been searching for someone to take the spot next year, and it appears they may have found a solid contender. Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE, at large) announced today that he will be entering the race, which is very good news for the GOP. Castle is a popular choice, as he has held elected office in the state for nearly three decades, starting out as lieutenant governor in 1980 and following that up with two terms as governor. He’s been the state’s lone Rep. ever since he left the chief executive spot seventeen years ago – the longest term for a representative in state history. Add onto that the fact that a recent poll shows Castle leading Beau Biden by five points and the Republicans appear to have a very real shot at taking the seat next year. Before Castle made his candidacy known, the sole Republican in the race was marketing consultant Christine O’Donnell, who had unsuccessfully run for Senate in 2006 and 2008. Castle’s declaration has even caused a number of political analysts to change their view of the race, with one even going to far as to change it to “Lean Takeover”. Beau Biden will have his chance to turn the numbers around, but it’s very possible that Delaware will have a Republican Senator come 2011.

Top

Thursday, October 01, 2009

The Poll Position

While it may be an off-year, electorally speaking, the pollsters are still hard at work, calling hundreds of folks and trying to get their fingers on the pulse of the nation’s electorate. There are a number of high-profile polls out this week, some regarding the fast-approaching odd-year governors’ races, while some touch on some high-profile 2010 Senate races. There’s still a month left for the VA and NJ chief executive contests, and 13 months for the national races, so it’s important to remember that things can change, but here is where they currently stand.

The numbers for both of the governors’ races have shown some movement in the last couple of weeks. In Virginia, Creigh Deeds (D) saw a bit of a boost at the end of August, when a decades-old graduate thesis written by his Republican opponent, Bob McDonnell, turned up and generated a bit of controversy. That story apparently didn’t have the legs that state Democrats hoped it would, as the latest poll shows McDonnell starting to increase his lead back to pre-September numbers after Deeds pulled to within 2 points of his opponent. While probably not responsible for the shift in polls, Deeds did receive a bit of a setback when former Democratic governor Doug Wilder chose not to endorse anyone in the race – even after being directly courted by the President. It’s possible that we’re simply seeing the political pendulum in Virginia ceasing its leftward swing and beginning to correct itself back to the right. While both of the state’s Senators and the current governor are Democrats, President Obama was the first presidential candidate from his party to win the state in nearly half a century. It could just as easily be a brief hiccup in that left-ward trend, similar to the overall loss of popularity the Democrats are facing across the country as the economy and employment situation remain troublesome. Losing the governor’s race to the Republicans would be bad on its own level, but it could also prove to be a referendum on the President, who inserted himself into the race early on. His approval rating in the commonwealth has also dropped drastically since last year’s election, resting well below 50%.

In New Jersey, the numbers are moving in the opposite direction, with Republican Chris Christie’s lead over incumbent Jon Corzine (D) slowly shrinking. The latest poll shows Corzine creeping to within 4 points of his opponent, halving the lead that Christie enjoyed at the beginning of the month. This could have something to do with the rash of attack ads run by the Democrat, linking his opponent to former president George W. Bush and questioning his stance on women’s health. Corzine isn’t the only one whose numbers have grown, though, with Independent candidate Chris Daggett taking 12% of the vote, which is up from 9% earlier this month. This movement shows that Corzine may have been successful in discouraging some folks from voting for Christie, but he hasn’t done an adequate job of convincing them to support the man himself. Corzine still has the lead in campaign funds, though, and his deep pockets could go a long way in helping him trim the lead further. With his job approval ratings currently in the gutter, he may have to stick to trashing his opponent if he’s to pull off the upset next month.

Up in New York’s 23^rd Congressional District, the three-way race remains tight, although Republican Dede Scozzafava enjoys a small lead over her opponents, Democrat Bill Owens and Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. This bodes well for Scozzafava, as the prevailing belief is that Hoffman should be cutting into her electoral base. Scozzafava is hardly a right-wing conservative, however, as she holds liberal stances on some social issues and supports tax increases. Owens is also atypical as far as his party’s concerned, as he has yet to support a public option in the health care debate. As each candidate attempts to undermine each other when it comes to their parties’ usual ideological bases, it’s important to remember that there is a large slice of the electorate that remains undecided, and big chunks of the supporters of the major parties’ candidates are uncertain of their choice and may change their minds between now and the November 3^rd special election.

In less pressing but still interesting news, Arlen Specter (D-PA) received some bad news from the poll numbers this week. The Republican front-runner in the race has pulled up neck-and-neck with the Senator, leading him by one point. While the numbers have been close lately, Specter had enjoyed a lead since he switched parties in early May in order to avoid a primary contest with Toomey. He’s also in the red as far as approval rating goes, with only 44 percent of those polled having a positive view of his job right now. The only silver lining these numbers have for Specter is that he still leads his foremost Democratic challenger, Joe Sestak (D-PA, 7^th) by a healthy margin. This is largely due to Specter’s significant lead in name recognition. Unfortunately for him, he may be well-known, but he’s not well-liked. Some of his problems may be coming from the generic right-ward shift that’s occurring across the nation, as the party in power is taking the brunt of the blame for the nation’s woes. President Obama’s approval rating in Pennsylvania has fallen below 50% for the first time, which is a bad sign for Democrats as the Keystone State is fairly reliably blue.

Top

Monday, September 28, 2009

Conservative Candidates Fight for the Soul of the GOP

Last week I commented on the Obama Administration’s efforts at getting all the Democratic ducks in a row, as it were. This week it’s beginning to look like the Republicans may be suffering from the same problem, although without any strong central leadership figure at the head of the party, it could be more severe. While it’s hard to argue that healthy primary races are anything but good for a Party, they can also result in the eventual victor being weakened so much that they have trouble in the general election. Obviously the party leadership wants the candidate they’re backing to win, or you can have a case like the Republicans had with Arlen Specter (D-PA) – he feared facing Pat Toomey (R) in a primary so much that he switched sides. While Toomey fared very well against Specter in the potential inter-party contest, polls show him lagging behind Specter in a general match-up. The result was the immediate loss of a Senate seat for the Republicans which helped contribute to the Democrats’ 60-seat majority. While Toomey still has a chance at upsetting Specter, it’s not looking very likely. Of course, a lot of that depends on the mood of the country, and it’s possible that a majority of voters will be ready to vote for a staunch conservative fourteen months from now.

One of the most notable examples of this is in the Florida Senate race for the 2010 election, where voters will decide who will replace appointed-Senator George Lemieux (R-FL), who recently took over for Mel Martinez in the Senate. Right now, the front-runner on the Republican side is Charlie Crist (R), the popular governor who also displays signs of political centrism: he supported the President’s stimulus package earlier this year and is in favor of capping the state’s carbon emissions. He also currently has the backing of the national party leadership, including the National Republican Senatorial Committee. He’ll be facing off against Marco Rubio in the primary, whose conservative bona fides are backed by such institutions as the National Review and the Club for Growth. Crist currently leads in the all-important name recognition factor, but Rubio’s followers are more politically active, which could give him the edge in a primary election where voter turnout is rarely high. The venerated columnist George Will points to this as a sign that Rubio will have the edge in the primary; he and his followers are ideologically driven, while Crist’s are not. The last couple of months have shown us that there is a broad base of conservatives that are itching for some sort of action on the political front. If aspiring politicians can tap into these wellsprings of support, they can win primaries across the country. Of course, whether that translates into electoral victories in November is another question entirely.

Another example which we will get to see play out before us shortly is the race for the as-yet unannounced special election in New York’s 23^rd Congressional District. The seat is vacant because its previous occupant, John McHugh (R), was recently confirmed to be President Obama’s Secretary of the Army. The contest is already getting heated, as there are three candidates in the running, and they currently appear to be roughly neck and neck. In addition to the Democratic candidate, Bill Owens, and the Republican, Dede Scozzafava, the third candidate, Douglas Hoffman, hails from the Conservative Party. While Scozzafava has the backing of the GOP, Hoffman is supported by the aforementioned Club for Growth and, just recently, former Presidential candidate Fred Thompson. So far, the Conservative candidate has turned his guns on his Republican opponent, causing some to speculate that the Hoffman camp is hoping the GOP will drop Scozzafava out of fear that the two will split the conservative vote, but right now it doesn’t look like anyone plans on leaving the race. While it’s too early to say for sure, it’s very possible that the two right-leaning candidates will do exactly what you’d expect: split the vote and let Owens cruise to an easy victory.

The Republicans have a lot of positives going into the 2010 elections. The economy remains a bone of contention for most of the electorate, and that’s never a good sign for the party currently in power. Some previously entrenched Democratic Senators are looking at a difficult time in their next contests, including Chris Dodd and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. It remains to be seen, however, whether running hard-right candidates is the answer that the GOP is looking for. The Democrats took the opposite route the last few years, running centrist candidates and so called “Blue Dogs” in 2006 and 2008, with impressive results. Of course, it’s also resulted in some problems within their coalition, as they’re not all necessarily on the same page, ideologically. Conservative Republicans may have the right idea, running folks that are sure to agree with their legislative agenda. Of course, these candidates might not have the same broad appeal that’s necessary to get elected. We’ll see what Republicans across the country want in the upcoming primaries, and then, depending on those results, we’ll see where the nation as a whole wants to be headed next November.

Top

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Former Kennedy Staffer Chosen as Interim Mass. Senator

Over the last week, the Massachusetts legislature voted to allow Governor Deval Patrick to name an interim Senator to fill the void left by the passing of Ted Kennedy last month. The governor wasted little time making the appointment, deliberating for about a day before he announced his final choice: Paul G. Kirk Jr., a former aide and long-time friend to Kennedy and reportedly the favorite choice of Ted’s widow Vicky and the rest of the Kennedy family. Kirk was a Special Assistant to the Senator for nearly a decade in the ‘70s and chaired the Democratic National Committee from 1985-1989. He is currently the Chairman of the John F. Kennedy Library Foundation as well as CEO of Kirk & Associates, Inc., a Boston-based business consulting firm. Kirk has been hailed as an obvious choice due to his relationship with the Kennedy family as well as his in-depth knowledge of national politics. Other candidates that were reportedly being considered include former governor Michael Dukakis, former LtGov. Evelyn Murphy and Harvard Law professor Charles Ogletree. A special election will be held on January 19, 2010 to choose who will fill out the remainder of Kennedy’s term which ends in 2014.

Top

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Taking Sides: Obama Backs Candidates in Primary Races

Almost a year after his electoral victory, President Obama still can’t seem to resist a good campaign. Between the intense media exposure over the last weekend, his rally at the University of Maryland last week and the address to Congress at the beginning of the month, the Commander in Chief has been doing a lot of what amounts to pressing the flesh lately. Of course, it’s wise to play to one’s strengths, so the strategy seems sound, as the administration tries to take control of the debate in Washington the best way they know how. It could also go a long way in explaining why he and his staff have been inserting themselves into a number of 2010 campaigns recently. Whether publicly or privately, from the President himself or through his aides, Obama has been making it well known who he prefers in a number of primaries across the country.

Currently, the highest profile example of this is in New York, where Governor David Paterson (D) is facing dismal polling numbers as he gears up for the 2010 election. Ever cognizant of the importance of keeping big-state governorships in the party, the Obama administration contacted Paterson, through indirect means, to inform him of their concern over his ability to regain enough popularity to win next fall. The White House appears to have their eye on another candidate: state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, whose father Mario was governor from 1983-1995. Despite the request from Washington, Paterson has announced his commitment to staying in the race. This made for an awkward trip to New York for the President yesterday, where he faintly praised the Governor, followed by a hearty endorsement of Cuomo. Much of the worry about the race is that former NYC mayor and presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani (R) will take advantage of Paterson’s weaknesses and snatch the chief executive spot from the Democrats. The situation is similar to the New York Senate race, where appointed Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) appeared to be facing a number of primary challengers, who all mysteriously left the race shortly after the White House made it clear that they wanted an open field before the Senator. It’s possible that Paterson, like Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY, 14^th), will back out after some reconsideration.

The New York Senate race isn’t the only party primary that the President has taken sides in, either. With Senator Michael Bennet (D-CO) facing a strong challenger in former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff, Obama decided to add his two cents to that race as well. Like Gillibrand and Paterson, Bennet wasn’t elected to his current spot, which has party operatives worried that his lack of experience running a campaign may hurt him in the fall. Romanoff has shown no signs of being phased by the administration’s support of his opponent, so it is likely that there will be a spirited contest in the spring between those two Democrats. The polls show them about even when pitted against the likely Republican candidate, former Lt.Gov. Jane Norton, with Bennet having a slight lead over both of them in name recognition.

In Pennsylvania, the President once more waded into a race between two Democrats, throwing his support behind the newest party member, Arlen Specter. This is probably a result of negotiations from back in April, when Specter was convinced to switch sides and give the Democrats what was then their 59^th vote in the Senate. It appears to have been a wise move for Specter, who, despite losing his committee seniority, is now on the side of the majority, and has about $2.5 million more than he did before the President stepped in. That’s not to say that Specter’s opponent, Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA, 7^th), won’t be putting up a solid fight. He’s held town halls with the Republican front-runner, Pat Toomey, and they’ve both been taking shots at the sitting Senator in a sort of pre-primary truce. That probably has a lot to do with the fact that Specter is currently leadingboth of them in the polls. Sestak will need all the luck he can get, as he’s going against a long-time Senator with the weight of the White House behind him.

Having the White House insert itself into campaigns is hardly a new thing, but inserting itself into primaries can be fraught with dangers. There’s always the risk of alienating the local constituency, creating the appearance of Washington trying to control a state’s politics. Also, there’s the chance that the candidate being backed by the President can lose, which would leave him open to criticism. In the end, the President is the leader of his party, and if he believes getting involved in primaries and elections is the best way to increase the party’s power and influence, that’s certainly his prerogative.

Top

Thursday, September 17, 2009

Crowds Forming to Oust Dodd and Bennet

There’s been a lot of news in the last week about upcoming Senate races, and while Massachusetts is obviously the highest-profile, a couple of others may have a very real effect on the makeup of the Senate after next year’s elections. Just a few months ago, the Democrats seemed to be riding high while the Republican Party was back on its heels. Since then, there’s been a shift in public sentiment, and Democrats in Congress, as well as President Obama, have taken the brunt of it. While there is still over a year to go before the mid-term elections, the party in charge has to hope for a big turnaround in the economy, as it’s likely to decide next year’s contests. Even if things start picking up, there are a couple current Senators that may be in trouble regardless.

Out in Colorado, Michael Bennet (D-CO) recently learned that he will be facing a primary opponent. While sure to be unpopular with the anti-Czar crowd, former speaker of the Colorado House Andrew Romanoff (D) has declared his candidacy. He asserts that the state deserves to be represented by an elected official, rather than an appointed one. This is a reference to the fact that Bennet was named to his spot by Governor Bill Ritter (D) in order to fill out the remainder of Ken Salazar’s term after the Senator accepted a position as Obama’s Secretary of the Interior. While Bennet has the backing of the national party and most of the state’s Congressional delegation, some state party officials are lining up behind Romanoff. One of the biggest knocks against the sitting Senator is his lack of experience: he is a former superintendent of Denver’s Public Schools, and has never been elected to an office. He’s been trying to increase his state-wide popularity since taking office, which he will need to survive the primary challenge. If he is successful in the spring, he’ll then face one of several Republican candidates who have announced their candidacy, including Aurora Councilman Ryan Frazier, county District Attorney Ken Buck, former state Senator Tom Wiens and former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton. Norton, who stepped into the race earlier this week, is the early favorite on the GOP side. That’s bad news for Bennet, as a recent poll shows Norton leading him by a healthy margin. It’s a tough race to call from this far out, as Colorado went pretty strongly for President Obama in 2008, but it certainly isn’t solidly blue (Bush took the state in 2000 and 2004). We’ll keep an eye on it as things develop further.

Over in Connecticut, another Senate race is getting heated, with a number of candidates crowding in to get a piece of the embattled Chris Dodd (D). The Senator took some licks earlier this year for his association with the recent financial crisis, especially the unpopular bonuses for AIG executives. Looking to take advantage, a few high-profile individuals are now vying for his seat. The current front-runner on the GOP side is former Rep. Rob Simmons, who entered the race months ago and has been leading Dodd in polls ever since. This week, Simmons got some company, as Linda McMahon, CEO of World Wresting Entertainment, threw her metal folding chair into the ring. While her name recognition might be greater than your average candidate’s, she isn’t exactly known for politics. Of course, with former wrestler Jesse “The Body” Ventura having served as governor of Minnesota, stranger things have certainly happened. She’ll have to best Simmons in the primary, though, as well as the other Republican candidate that announced his candidacy this week: Peter Schiff. Schiff is known mostly as a free-market libertarian who predicted the recent economic collapse. Another political neophyte, Schiff may benefit from the base that presidential candidate Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX, 14^th) established over the last year, as he has a similar economic ideology. These candidates will join in on a crowded primary race, as state senator Sam Caligiuri and former Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley have already established campaigns. While Dodd’s popularity isn’t what it used to be, his numbers have been creeping up lately. He can also rely on a heated Republican primary, which could wound his eventual opponent enough for him to once again successfully defend his long-held seat.

Top

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Who’s In, Who’s Out in Race for Kennedy’s Seat

There’s been a lot of movement in the Massachusetts Senate race over the last week, with the state legislature reportedly approaching a decision on whether to change state law and allow governor Deval Patrick (D) to appoint an interim replacement for the departed Ted Kennedy – a debate the White House had reportedly entered, with David Axelrod contacting the state Senate President to discuss the issue earlier this week. With the current coalition of Democrats in the U.S. Senate sitting at 59, the success of the President’s legislative agenda depends largely on having someone in Kennedy’s seat as soon as possible. Regardless, interested candidates will be facing off in January, so they’re gearing up now for what will likely be an expensive and combative campaign.

One of the new faces to pop up in the race this week is Stephen Pagliuca (D), wealthy private equity investor and co-owner of the Boston Celtics. He is reportedly considering entering the contest, and with his wealth allowing him to self-fund, he would have an instant lead as far as cash is concerned. His lack of political experience would work against him, as could his association with Wall Street in a time of economic trouble: Pagliuca is a managing director at Bain Capital, which is the same firm that former-governor Mitt Romney (R) led in the 90s. Meanwhile, on the GOP side of the field, state Senator Scott Brown has announced his candidacy. The fiscal conservative faces a tough challenge, as Massachusetts sports a nearly 3-to-1 ratio of Democrats to Republicans. He has the advantage of being the most prominent candidate from his party, nearly assuring him the primary victory, but that may not amount to much.

While there are a couple new faces, the more surprising moves came from the folks who have decided against joining the fray. Three Representatives – John Tierney (D-MA, 6^th), Stephen Lynch (D-MA, 9^th) and Edward Markey (D-MA, 7^th) – who many expected to run have all opted out of the contest. That leaves Michael Capuano (D-MA, 8^th) as the sole member of the Massachusetts Congressional delegation to remain in the race. Former Rep. Martin Meehan had previously considered a run but decided to stay in his position as chancellor of the University of Massachusetts. The Republicans are also getting in on the act, with former Bush aide Andrew Card choosing to remain out of the campaign earlier this week. Card joins Christy Mihos and former Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey on the list of Republicans who have declined to enter the race. While the House members have seniority in their current positions to consider, it’s still a wonder that so many other potential candidates have chosen to step aside. The cost of a campaign may play a large part, as candidates must raise hundreds of thousands of dollars in a short amount of time if they expect to remain competitive. Of course, the stigma of being in Congress while the approval rating of the much-maligned institution remains so low may be causing some to reconsider. A race this short is demanding on a candidate and it seems like the medium-shot folks aren’t willing to enter with the odds of victory against them.

As it stands, state AG Martha Coakley (D) is the front-runner in this race. While she would have been helped a bit by a broader field including multiple Reps from neighboring districts, she still has the advantage over the few Democrats running. Of course, there are some in the state that would like Governor Patrick himself to join the fray. His approval ratings are less-than stellar right now, which would probably hurt his chances, but his constituency may be willing to elect him to the Senate just to get him out of the state’s driver’s seat. In reality, this is a long shot, and he’ll probably stay put, leaving Coakley with a reasonably straight path to victory in the December primary, with one in January not far behind.

Top

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Harkin, Lincoln Winners of Senatorial Shell Game

With the passing of Ted Kennedy, Democrats in the Senate were left to decide who would succeed the Senator in his position as Chair of the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions committee. There was much initial speculation that Chris Dodd (D-CT) would take the spot, as he’d been filling in for the ailing Senator for much of this year. Instead, Dodd opted to remain in charge of the Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs. That left Tom Harkin (D-IA) next in line for the HELP spot, which he assumed yesterday, requiring him to step down from the lead spot on the Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry. Finally rounding out this bout of musical Chairs, Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) filled the vacancy left by Harkin, making her the first woman to chair the Ag. Committee.

Farm groups were quick to praise the appointment, calling the Senator a long-time friend of farmers and rural Americans. However, the move has ruffled a few feathers on the left, as Lincoln is a moderate Senator from a southern state who is facing a tough contest next year: she is currently neck-and-neck with her Republican opponents in her race for re-election. The committee she chairs will control the fate of a number of environmental proposals, including any climate-change legislation that comes through the chamber, and progressives are wary that Lincoln will succumb to pressure from conservative constituents in order to buttress her chances at winning next year. In the end, though, it seems unlikely that this appointment will dash all hopes the Democrats have for environmental reforms.

Top

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Mass. Pols Prepare for a Fight Over Kennedy’s Senate Seat

As predicted, it didn’t take long for the field to get crowded in the race to replace the late Senator Ted Kennedy. A handful of hopefuls have taken the initial steps in declaring their candidacy for the January special election, although so far only one has officially filed. Of course, the race could look a whole lot different if Massachusetts Democrats get their way and change the state law to enable the governor to appoint an interim Senator to fill the spot for the next four months. The same law was recently changed to thwart then-governor Mitt Romney (R), putting the state legislature in a tight spot: they don’t want to have the appearance of any political chicanery, which could upset a number of independent voters and hurt the party’s chances in near-future elections. However, they’ve been receiving intense pressure from the Massachusetts Congressional delegation, including Senator Kerry, as well as the dying wishes of one of the state’s most beloved political figures. Whether or not there is an interim appointment, there will be an election in January, and a number of politicians are lining up to run.

The current front-runner is state Attorney General Martha Coakley (D), who got out to an early lead, largely by being the first candidate to file the required paperwork. She has strong state-wide name recognition, and she also recently received the endorsement of the pro-choice group EMILY’s List – both big boosts, as she started the campaign with almost no cash, due to her inability to transfer state campaign funds to a Federal election. That’s in contrast to her probable challengers from the Massachusetts Congressional delegation, who can make use of their current war chests. A number of Representatives have expressed interest, ranging from enthusiastic announcements to quietly picking up the required paperwork. Michael Capuano (D-MA, 8^th) has made his candidacy clear, dubbing himself the only progressive in the race. Stephen Lynch (D-MA, 9^th) has picked up his papers, but remains tight-lipped about his intent. Veteran House member Edward Markey (D-MA, 7^th) is also rumored to be interested, although he’s weighing the decision based on his considerable seniority in his current spot. If these three Boston-area neighbors all decide to run, it would be a boon to Coakley, as they would likely split the city’s votes amongst themselves. While the race has barely begun, and she’s currently hampered by lack of funding, it’s looking pretty likely that Coakley will win the Democratic primary and eventually become the first woman Senator in Massachusetts history.

While definitely considered long shots, there are a number of Republicans ready to throw their hats in the ring. A former Chief of Staff to President Bush, Andrew Card, says that it’s likely he will decide to run, although not making his decision definite. A native of Massachusetts, Card was previously a state Rep., and while enthusiastic to run, expressed misgivings over family issues. Some believe his ties to the Bush administration could sink his chances, but he remains optimistic in that regard. Another Republican who was considering a run is Christy Mihos, former member of the Massachusetts Turnpike Authority. It seemed all but certain that he would enter the Senate race, as he informed reporters he was “just about there” on Tuesday night. However, Mihos has since surprised reporters by backing out, deciding to continue his run for governor instead. This will be his second attempt at the chief executive position, with his first being as an Independent in 2006. It’s important to keep in mind that although Massachusetts is a Democratic stronghold, Mitt Romney was governor of the state only a few short years ago. It’s possible for a Republican to win, although admittedly unlikely.

One dark horse possibility as an Independent candidate is former Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling. Initially mistaken for a Republican, Schilling has been coy with the media over his actual intentions, refusing to set a timetable for his announcement. While baseball is big in Beantown, it’s pretty unlikely that he will be able to parlay his dominance on the diamond into a seat in one of the most exclusive clubs in American politics. Of course, in a world where a former action movie star runs the nation’s most populous state, it’s hard to count out a six-time All Star with three championships under his belt.

Almost as significant as who will be running is the list of the folks who won’t be. There was some initial speculation that Kennedy’s widow, Vicki, would pursue her husband’s spot, although it appears that she will be content to sit this one out. People are still holding out hope, as she hasn’t officially declined, but as she has no political experience, it would be difficult to ride her name recognition all the way to Washington. There was also supposition that former Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy II would put his name forward, but he has since announced that he will remain out of the race. That leaves Massachusetts in an unfamiliar situation: for the first time in decades, they won’t be represented in Congress by a member of the Kennedy family. It’s truly a shock, and one of the strongest signs that the sun is setting on the Camelot dynasty.

Top

Tuesday, September 08, 2009

History in the Making: President Obama Prepares to Address Congress on Health Care

As Congress returns from its month-long recess filled with raucous town hall meetings, they’ll be addressed by the President on a subject the majority of them are probably sick and tired of hearing about by now: health care reform. In an attempt to gain control of the national debate, the President will be addressing the nation through a joint session of Congress. This will be his second speech in as many days, as he also addressed the nation’s schoolchildren earlier today, emphasizing the importance of hard work and responsibility – subjects of great controversy, to be sure. It’s assumed that the President will be spelling out exactly what he wants any health care legislation to look like, although it’s still uncertain whether or not that will include a public option. As we gear up for the main event, it’s important to understand the environment he’ll be walking into on Capitol Hill.

As it stands, there are still five separate versions of the health care bill; three in committees in the House and two in the Senate. Four of the bills contain language creating a government-run public option, with just the Senate Finance Committee leaving it out. That bill is still unfinished, with the question of how to pay for it all being a major sticking point. Within this committee resides the fabled Gang of Six: three Democrats and three Republicans who have been tasked with hashing out a compromise that will garner some bipartisan support. Max Baucus (D-MT) is the chair of the committee, and has been the subject of much of the progressives’ ire as he made it clear early on that he was in favor a bill with no public option. Baucus has put forth a plan involving the creation of a network of nonprofit cooperatives, in lieu of the public option, which would ideally be able to compete with private health care providers. There is still fear that two of the three Republicans in the Gang of Six – Chuck Grassley (R-IA) and Mike Enzi (R-WY) – will reject this plan due to pressure from their party, leaving Olympia Snowe (R-ME) as seemingly the lone Republican willing to come to the table.

One of the few remaining Republicans in the Northeast, Snowe has a history of bipartisanship. She joined Susan Collins (R-ME) and then-Republican Arlen Specter as the only Republicans to vote for the stimulus bill earlier this year, and even voted against President Bush’s tax cuts. Unlike most Republicans, she has been willing to negotiate a compromise on this issue, rather than putting her foot down and opposing, seemingly for the sake of opposition. Snowe has shown herself to be open to the idea of a “triggered” public option, which would establish a government-run health care system if, in a number of years, the changes provided by the current bill haven’t significantly reduced private costs. In the event that the Democrats would have to look to their opposing party for any votes, it appears that Snowe is it. The Republicans seem to be in lock-step over this issue, with few willing to budge. Judd Gregg (R-NH) could be a possibility, as he represents notoriously independent New Hampshire, and will not be seeking reelection next year, but it appears he’s firmly on the side of the opposition. With Snowe as the last hope for bipartisanship, it’s little wonder that the White House sent HHS secretary Kathleen Sebelius to Maine last week, emphasizing the importance of health care reform for older women.

Ostensibly, the Senate Democrats have enough votes to pass a bill of their choosing, but a number of factors will make things difficult for them. For one, their 60-vote majority shrank to 59 with the passing of Ted Kennedy, and it’s still uncertain whether he will be replaced before January. Another thorn in their side is that the Democrats have a bit of a divide within their coalition: there are a few dozen members of the House Progressive Caucus that believe the public option is essential to health care reform, while the more centrist Blue Dogs are more than willing to leave it out of the finished legislation. Either one of these groups could sink the bill in the end, so Congressional leaders are hard-pressed to find a working compromise. The most disastrous thing to happen for the Democrats would be their own bill being brought down by elements from within.

On Wednesday night, President Obama will be speaking to two different audiences: the lawmakers in the Capitol, and the mass of Americans watching from home. He will have to construct a speech that addresses them both and does two things at once: make it clear to Congress which direction he wants the bill to go in, and assure the people of the nation that what comes out of it will be in their best interest. If he succeeds in just one of these tasks, it’s uncertain whether one can call the address a success. If he convinces Congress and not the people, his party could suffer a massive defeat in next year’s elections as a result. Even if he manages to change the minds of the folks back home, it may be too late to turn up the heat on folks in Congress, and his hopes for reform could be dashed.

Top