Thursday, October 08, 2009

CBO Gives Baucus Bill Positive Diagnosis; Public Option Still on Life Support

When it comes to the inner workings of Congress, it can often be difficult to tell when things are actually getting done. So much of what happens occurs in committee or behind closed doors, and it often takes so much time, that it gives the appearance of inaction. This week is a notable exception, though, as there’s been a lot of movement lately on the hottest issues on the Hill; especially health care reform.

The biggest news coming out this week is that the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has completed its preliminary analysis of the bill that Max Baucus (D-MT) and the Senate Finance Committee have hammered out, and the resulting report is positive news for the President and Senate Democrats. The projection shows that the bill will cost a total of $829 billion over the next ten years – well beneath the $900 billion mark that the President is shooting for. It’s also estimated that the bill will reduce the federal deficit by $81 billion in the same timeframe, which is a blow to anyone opposing reform attempts. Congressional Republicans were hardly fazed, however, as shortly after the report was published, House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA, 7^th) sought to undermine the CBO report on twitter, posting, “On government cost estimates. In 1967, official estimates said Medicare would cost $12b (in 1990 $) - it ended up costing $110 billion.” One might question the reasoning of having the CBO if one is simply going to brush off their findings, but such is often the way on Capitol Hill: the admission of defeat is simply out of the question.

Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) also attempted to dampen enthusiasm, saying “This partisanFinance Committee proposalwill never see the Senate floor, since the real bill will be written by Democrat leaders in a closed-to-the-public conference room somewhere in the Capitol.” This is technically true, as there is another incarnation of the health care bill from the Senate HELP committee, which will have to be merged with Baucus’ bill. This report is still an important and necessary step in getting to the point where a single bill can actually be presented to the floor. While the final legislation that eventually winds up on the President’s desk will not be this exact bill, because of the favorable marks from the CBO, it’s certainly going to have much in common with it. Of course, that’s a mixed blessing for progressives hoping for a public option, as Baucus’ bill doesn’t include one. It does establish a mandate for obtaining health insurance, as well as setting up insurance exchanges and expanding Medicaid eligibility. The Finance Committee expects to finish their markup and vote on the bill by next Tuesday. It remains uncertain whether they will be able to court any Republicans on the committee, with Olympia Snowe (R-ME) being the most likely to break ranks.

Once the bill arrives on the Senate floor, it will be debated and amended quite a bit, and a new potential compromise has been brought up by Sen. Tom Carper (D-DE) which could be included in the Senate’s final draft. His idea, which is backed by Hill heavyweight Chuck Schumer (D-NY), is to include a federal public option which would allow states to opt out of it if they so choose. This could go a long way toward assuaging the opposition of many of the conservative Democrats that threaten to scuttle the idea of a public option altogether. Granted, the CBO hasn’t examined a bill with this provision in it, and it will be difficult to add it in while keeping costs low. One plan to help pay for the bill that’s gained the opposition of many Democrats is to tax certain expensive health insurance plans, sometimes referred to as “Cadillac” plans. Another option that’s being considered is a windfall profits tax on health insurers, which is gaining a bit of ground, as the insurance companies have brought little to the table so far, as far as concessions go.

Of course, there’s still another chamber of Congress, and Democrats in the House have their own plans for health care reform. The House progressive caucus is still intent on having a public option in the finished legislation, and some members are adamant about it being included. While they expect that the final House bill will include one, as well as a controversial tax increase on wealthy Americans, progressives fear that these motions will not survive the conference committee, and will be left out of the final draft. The good news for them is that they appear to have the American people on their side; while support for the President’s health plan remains low, certain provisions get high marks in recent polls, including the public option. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA, 8^th) also announced that she will be sending three different drafts to the CBO for cost estimates, in order to begin to reconcile the bills residing in three separate committees. While it will still be some time before a final bill is sent to the White House, the action this week goes a long way toward helping assure that the President achieves his goal of passing comprehensive health care reform by year’s end.

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