Tuesday, October 20, 2009

The Campaigner in Chief

While few can deny that President Obama is a capable campaigner, his last big effort – to bring the summer Olympics to Chicago in 2016 – ended in failure. He received a lot of flak for it at home, but in the end it probably didn’t do all that much damage on the domestic political front. This week he’s back at it, although the stakes are a bit higher now as he’s out in support of struggling Democratic candidates who will be facing elections in just a few weeks. While the balance of power in Congress is a high-profile number, state governorships are big prizes for either party as well, and a few of them appear to be hanging in the balance. Burdened by some middling approval ratings, the President is hitting the road over the next week to support his party’s candidates, and to try to keep some states’ executive offices within the fold.

On Wednesday, the President will be in New Jersey, once more trying to help Governor Jon Corzine (D) in his re-election bid. The race is currently dead even, with both major candidates pulling 39% of the vote, and Independent candidate Chris Daggett garnering almost 15%. While Daggett’s ascendancy has had a big effect on the race’s narrowing, Obama’s support may be partially responsible as well. Back in July, Corzine was lagging behind his Republican opponent, Chris Christie, by double digits. That was before the President appeared on behalf of the governor, and considering Corzine’s abysmal job approval rating which has remained relatively stable, it’s unlikely that the shift has anything to do with the voters’ views of the governor himself. While it’s still too close to call, Corzine’s chances look better now than they have all year. If he pulls of a squeaker of a victory, it will probably have a lot to do with the President’s help.

The other impending gubernatorial contest is in Virginia, where Creigh Deeds (D) is trailing his opponent Bob McDonnell (R) by about 8 points with just a couple weeks left to go. The President had originally stumped for Deeds back in early August, and the results were mixed at best: at the time, McDonnell enjoyed a lead of roughly 14 points, with the margin shrinking to almost zero during September. How much of that was caused by Obama’s support is up for debate; much of the poll movement came after McDonnell’s controversial thesis came to light, and Deeds’ momentum receded as that story fizzled. Regardless of the effect his previous appearances have had, Obama will be returning next week in order to throw some eleventh-hour support behind the Democrat. This could help the struggling candidate improve his bona fides with loyal Democrats, which is a group he’s been struggling with and one which was so instrumental in helping the President win the state last year. Deeds will also get the help of some other party stalwarts: former President Bill Clinton and primary challenger Terry McAuliffe will be campaigning in Northern Virginia as well. It looks like Deeds is a long shot for victory as the election rapidly approaches, but don’t count him out completely. While the country as a whole is showing itself to be dissatisfied with the party in charge, the opposition isn’t faring all that well either.

This afternoon, the President will be attending a fund-raiser in New York, being held to benefit Bill Owens (D) who is running for the vacant house spot in NY-23. The seat was last held by John McHugh, who was recently confirmed to be the Secretary of the Army. The remarkable thing about this event is that Owens is a conservative Democrat who is hardly ideologically aligned with the President; in fact, Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava holds more liberal beliefs on abortion and same-sex marriage. This could explain why Obama isn’t speaking at the event, despite initially having been slated to make a few remarks. Regardless of their differences over policy, the President knows that every Democrat within the Congressional coalition is a win, so he’s making his appearance, but because the district is relatively conservative itself, he’s not making a big push. While Owens would appear to be at a distinct disadvantage due to the district’s general Republican lean, the fact that Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman is undermining the Republican candidate could tip the race to his favor. It’s still a tight race, but there’s a good chance that Owens will pull off the victory – and a bit of extra money raised by the Chief Executive certainly can’t hurt.

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