Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Battleground New York: Conservatives at Odds with GOP's Chosen Candidate

While conservative Republicans are hoping for a replay of the 1994 elections, they’re also spurning the man who helped bring it about. Appearing on the Sunday talk shows, Newt Gingrich coyly flirted with the idea of a 2012 presidential run, implying that he would enter the race if he felt none of the other candidates adequately represented Republican ideals. But reaction from the far-right of his party was less than positive, and much of the reason for that has to do with the lines being drawn in upstate New York, with Newt on the opposite side of many prominent conservatives.

While mid-term and special elections tend to be framed as a referendum on the sitting President, the race for New York’s 23^rd district is looking more like a battle for the heart of the Republican Party. With just a week to go, it’s a three-way race, with the GOP candidate, Dede Scozzafava, trailing Democrat Bill Owens and Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman. From the very start, conservatives expressed concern over the choice of Scozzafava, who was seen as too much of an insider politician, as well as out of step with the party on an ideological level. Since then, prominent conservative politicians, including Sarah Palin, Fred Thompson and Tim Pawlenty, have flocked to Hoffman’s banner, and the effect is showing in the polls; it has turned into a race between Hoffman and Owens, and with a week left, it’s unlikely that the Republican candidate will be able to regain lost ground – especially with much of her party’s national leadership against her.

While many of the endorsers have made it a point to emphasize that they made their choice for ideological reasons, Gingrich has made it clear that his choice was a practical one, framing it as a defense of local and state authorities’ control over their own political futures, as well as a need for party unity. While some in the party are calling for a hard veer to the right, purifying the organization on an ideological level, Newt is a leading advocate for broadening the party’s appeal to include as wide a base as possible. It’s a tough decision that opposition parties have to make, especially when they suffer a defeat as severe as 2008 was for the GOP. With only about 20% of the electorate actively identifying as Republican, they may have shrunk too far already. While Gingrich may have the right idea, the lack of solid leadership at the top could make it difficult to bring about the change he desires.

Considering the sticky situation, it’s a wonder that so many prominent Republicans waded into the race. While they’re obviously trying to increase their name recognition on a national level, there’s real potential for their choice to backfire. If Owens wins, they could be blamed for subverting their party’s chosen candidate and allowing the Democrats to take a seat in a historically Republican district. If Scozzafava wins, as unlikely as that may be, they will appear totally out of touch with their party, which will obviously be bad news for them in 2012. Even if Hoffman wins, they’ve proven that they’re willing to subvert the official choice of their own party. Perhaps that’s why former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee (R) chose to stay out of the imbroglio – and is performing better in the polls than his GOP counterparts.

In the end, the winner of the race will enter Congress a little under halfway through his or her term, and will do virtually nothing to change the makeup of the House. In other words, their effect in Congress will be negligible, but the real consequences of this race will be a good indicator of the outcome of next year’s elections, and what the future holds for the Republican Party.

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