Monday, November 02, 2009

2009 Election Preview: Will Tomorrow’s House Races Be an Indicator of 2010?

It’s been nearly a full year since Election Day 2008, when the Democrats – led by a phenomenally popular Barack Obama – rode a wave of electoral support to big majorities in both chambers of Congress, as well as securing the Oval Office. Since then, we’ve had a number of special elections to replace both Reps and Senators, who moved on to positions in the Obama Administration. Tomorrow, we have two more such contests taking place, and while the race to replace Ellen Tauscher in California’s 10^th seems to be one-sided, the match up in New York’s 23^rd looks to be going down to the wire. While these two seats won’t significantly change the makeup of the House, they are (most likely) going to be the last such high-profile elections before next year’s midterms, so the pundit class will be dissecting them to see what – if anything – can be gleaned from them about the state of the national electorate.

The race in California won’t be discussed much by the national media this week, as it’s something of a “Dog Bites Man” story. The 10^th District, which is just east of the state’s Bay Area, is heavily Democratic, with Republicans making up less than 30% of the electorate. Add to that the fact that the Democratic candidate is Lt. Gov. John Garamendi, who happens to be one of the most popular political figures in the state, and it would appear that the GOP’s David Harmer stands little chance of pulling off the upset. Still, the state’s Republican Party leadership isn’t ready to throw in the towel: while an electoral victory is unlikely, if Harmer manages to finish close, and the numbers show higher-than-expected turnout amongst Republicans and Independents, they’re ready to claim it as a sign of dissatisfaction with the party in power in Congress. While most experts assert that off-year races, with their low turnouts and lack of voter enthusiasm, make bad measuring sticks, the Republicans will take any sign of momentum that they can get. Regardless, expect Garamendi to be able to add “U.S. Representative” to his already extensive resume come tomorrow evening.

The race that most eyes will be turned to tomorrow is taking place in upstate New York, where a number of national Republicans have inserted themselves into the picture, backing Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman over Republican Dede Scozzafava. It got so bad, in fact, that Scozzafava suspended her campaign over the weekend, effectively dropping out of the race just days before the voting was to take place. Despite leading in the polls early on, Scozzafava was unable to raise much money compared to her opponents, and her liberal stances on issues such as abortion and gay marriage hurt her within her own party. Add to that the fact that many prominent Republicans, including Sarah Palin and Tim Pawlenty, threw their support behind Hoffman as a way to prove their conservative bona fides on the national stage, and Scozzafava essentially became the GOP candidate in name only. Perhaps that’s why she chose to endorse her Democratic opponent, Bill Owens, over Hoffman shortly after dropping out of the race. The latest polls show a close race, with Hoffman having the edge over Owens. It’s looking more and more like Hoffman will walk away with this one, which should come as little surprise based on the conservative nature of the electorate. Still, it could be troubling news for those within the Republican Party who are worried about it leaning further and further to the right, and alienating the big swath of Independents in the center.

Folks in New York and California would like to paint their race as a referendum on the national political scene. Most of the Republicans hoping to make a Presidential run in 2012 spent the last month flocking to the district to get their two cents in, and the majority of them chose to back Hoffman. One of the biggest reasons for this is that the GOP county leaders chose a weak candidate in Scozzafava; while they may have been going for someone closer to the center, they ended up alienating a large portion of their base due to her liberal stance on some key policies. Much will be made of how Hoffman’s success points to the rising power of far-right conservatives in the Republican Party, but it’s important to remember that the two candidates on the forefront of the 2012 pack – Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee – chose to remain on the sidelines. Yes, there was some very vocal support from conservatives for the Conservative candidate, but many of them were folks simply scrambling to get their names out there in any way possible and drum up support within their base. In the end, it’s looking like there will be a rare third-party member of the House come Wednesday, and the New York Republican Party will have to rethink their strategy on choosing candidates for the next time around.

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