Tuesday, November 03, 2009

Election Day 2009: What Do Today’s Gubernatorial Races Say About President Obama?

Today is Election Day, and while that doesn’t mean much for most of the country in this off-year, two states (well, a state and a commonwealth) are currently voting on their chief executives. The much-anticipated contests in New Jersey and Virginia are upon us, and, as we’re likely to discover in the next few days, will have wide-ranging consequences in the political world. While the official results won’t be in for hours, it’s looking like there will only be one close race, with the polls in Virginia showing a widening gap between the two candidates. Still, anything can happen, so don’t count anyone out until the votes are actually tallied. It could come down to the wire in both contests.

While once polling quite close, the difference in the Virginia governor’s race has been increasing over the past couple weeks, with Republican Bob McDonnell establishing and building on a significant lead over his Democratic opponent, Creigh Deeds. Depending on the poll you look at, McDonnell entered the day with a lead of anywhere from 12 to 18 points, which makes a Deeds victory incredibly unlikely. That’s a big blow to state Democrats, as they’ve enjoyed eight years at the helm of Old Dominion, as well as the election of two U.S. Senators in that time. Naturally, folks are trying to figure out what went wrong in the race, and some in the party are probably ruing the day that Terry McAuliffe (D) lost the primary. Some will choose to blame the candidate, criticizing Deeds for a poorly-run race. The White House began this a couple of weeks ago, claiming that he ignored good advice proffered from the Oval Office early on, which resulted in the current state of his campaign. Considering the fact that the President is still pretty popular in Virginia (he enjoys a 57% approval rating), Deeds may have been well served to take that advice. Of course, it could also be an example of the Administration distancing itself from a doomed candidate, in order to make it more difficult for the national media to paint the inevitable loss as a referendum on Obama – not that that will actually stop them. Still, considering the fact that Deeds is looking to come up short in many of the demographic groups that helped President Obama take the Southern state last year, it does seem apparent that the main thing missing from this Democratic campaign is the enthusiasm and energy that was so vital to last year’s victories. Look for McDonnell to win it in a cake-walk, and for the Republicans to sweep the down-ballot elections, too.

The other gubernatorial election taking place today is decidedly closer, with Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine and his Republican challenger Chris Christie at a virtual tie in the polls. This is thanks in large part to the relatively strong showing by independent candidate Chris Daggett. In true New Jersey spirit, the race has been a nasty one, with both major-party candidates resorting to negative advertisements early on, as well as trading personal insults. It’s a bit surprising, however, that Corzine has managed to stay in it, as he has a number of factors going against him: general dissatisfaction with the state tax situation, connections with the much-maligned Goldman Sachs and overall poor approval ratings. He’s also likely to face the same problem as Deeds in Virginia, as the party base is unlikely to come out in the same numbers as last year. The closeness of the race alone is a bad sign for the Democrats, as New Jersey should be reliably blue. Of course, the economic conditions make it hard for any incumbents to win right now, so the fact that Corzine is still in it is a big boost for them. In the end, the biggest factor is likely going to be where the independents go, and it’s looking like many of them will go with Daggett; something that Democrats are counting on and Republicans fear. Unfortunately for Daggett, he had little in the way of funds, and third-party candidates don’t have the same get-out-the-vote infrastructure as the two main parties. He’s entering the day polling just under 10%, and he probably won’t be able to scratch that in the final results. What that does mean is that whoever pulls off the victory will do so with less-than 50% of the vote. We probably won’t know the official results until some time after the polls close, but look for Corzine to pull off a squeaker.

Over the next few days, there will be countless analyses of these races, with experts extrapolating the final numbers to represent the national electorate. Folks will try and point to the results (likely to include a number of Republican victories) as a sign of dissatisfaction with the current Administration. As noted above, however, the President’s approval rating in these states doesn’t exactly match up with the performance of the Democratic candidates. In the end, the results of the races will depend mostly on the quality of the candidates running in them. Deeds’ predecessors, Tim Kaine and Mark Warner, struck a chord with their state’s electorate, which is something Creigh just wasn’t able to replicate. With the approval ratings Corzine is saddled with, it’s a wonder he’s been competitive at all. Combine these factors with the current economic situation (always one of the biggest elements in an election), and the President’s popularity hardly seems like the major component in these races.

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